FXUS61 KRLX 251544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1029 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCLUDED FRONT OF LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TODAY...BUT 
STRONG WINDS AND SOME ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TURNING GRADUALLY COLDER 
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAH HUMBUG...WORKING ON CHRISTMAS DAY AGAIN. WHITE CHRISTMAS DAWN 
MAINLY FROM N CENTRAL WV AND THE MTNS INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE.  

CANCELED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLY...BUT 
TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING AS WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY.  THE TEMPERATURE 
WAS AROUND FREEZING AT BKW UNTIL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...DESPITE 
YESTERDAYS MOS GUIDANCE HAVING READINGS NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR THIS 
MORNING.

A FEW COLDER SPOTS IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY MAY STILL HAVE ICE INTO 
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE ICE STORM WARNING THERE FOR NOW.

DRY SLOT SHOULD REACH HTS BY NOON...THEN SLOWLY CREEP E.  500 MB 
VORTICITY MAX SWINGS THROUGH NRN KY INTO OHIO THIS EVENING...SHOULD 
KEEP SOME SHOWERS REFORMING...DO NOT READY TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS.

MOST WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING...THAT I HAVE SEEN...ARE IN THE 40 TO 
50 MPH RANGE OVER THE HIGH WIND WARNING. REMOTE SENSING HAS ABOUT 55 
KNOTS AT 4 THSD FT AGL AT 15Z.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW 500 MB TROUGH GRADUALLY SINKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE 
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND 
BRING IN COLDER AIR...ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE SNOW CONDITIONS. WILL 
INCREASE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO BETTER REFLECT THESE 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
PUSH EAST OF REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER....NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION...WITH 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING 
THROUGH THURSDAY.  

MODELS SUGGEST AN SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY...WITH
THE STORM EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST NEW
YEARS DAY.  

HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY USED...WITH SOME TWEAKS TO 
REFLECT THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING ROUGHLY 12Z-20Z...ACCOMPANIED BY 
RAIN WITH PERHAPS MVFR VIS...AND FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD 
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BIGGER IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS DEGREE 
OF WIND SHEAR FROM STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOT FAR OFF THE GROUND...OUT 
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL LOWLANDS 
TERMINALS...SHEAR IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GROUND TO INCLUDE LLWS 
WITHIN THE TAFS. ALSO...ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING 
KBKW AND GREENBRIER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING 
RAIN THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN LATE MORNING TO 
EARLY 
AFTERNOON. SAME LOCATION WILL HAVE MOISTURE RIDE UP THE TERRAIN TO 
PRODUCE POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AS MAIN FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES AND THEN 
MOVES THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOWLANDS...AREAS THAT GO BACK TO VFR 
LATER TODAY WELL BEHIND FRONT...WILL DROP BACK INTO MVFR CIGS 
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS IFR CIGS IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033>038-
     046-047.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RPY
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MDP