FXUS63 KOAX 030929
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY THRU A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL US
CONTINUES TO PLUNGE INTO THE NATION'S MID SECTION. SKIES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CLEAR SO FAR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRATUS DECK ADVECTS IN
FROM THE DAKOTAS. A VERY LOW DENDRITIC LAYER WL BE NEARLY
SATURATED AND WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THIS LAYER...A FEW FLURRIES
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RADAR HAS BEEN PICKING UP A
FEW QUICK SEWD MOVING ECHOES THIS MORNING. A FEW SITES HAVE
REPORTED -SN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WITH LACK OF GOOD
FORCING...THINK THIS WL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH EITHER TODAY AS BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES ACROSS FAR NERN NEB AND INTO WRN IA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD STRONG AS WELL. WL CONTINUE HIGHS FROM UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW
30S SOUTH.

UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY LEAVING
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN THINGS BEGIN TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA AHEAD OF MAIN LOW SPINNING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LEE SIDE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER ERN CO AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES AN INVERTED
SFC TROF/CDFNT THRU THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND COULD LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IF QPF AND FORCING ALL LINE UP
TOGETHER. MODEL QPF VALUES ARE NEAR 0.25" AND WITH COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WOULD SEE SOME 1:15 LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS. WL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OPENS AND MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
FOR MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL WITH THE MAIN
FORCING MOVES TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 

06Z TAFS

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KOFK
AND KOMA TODAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. 
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK 
AND KOMA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

KERN/MILLER