FXAK67 PAJK 141441
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
541 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THRU TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER NW CANADA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THRU TONIGHT. TROF WILL SLOWLY SHARPEN UP OVER SW AK THRU
TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND TODAY AND THE LOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. A WEAK
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE N TO THE SRN CHARLOTTES BY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES. ATTM...A WEAK
OVERRUNNING FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE AND NE GULF
AREA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE FROM THE S
TODAY...BUT LIKELY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE NE GULF...WITH SOME
DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE ERN PART OF THE PAYA ZONE OVERNIGHT.
WILL GO WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING FOR
PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR...AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAHN. SHOULD SEE
SNOWFALL OF 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
EXPECTED AROUND THE PAHN AREA. THE PAYA AREA WILL SEE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT PROBLEM THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING S-SE
DURING THE DAY...WHICH WOULD WARM LOWER LEVELS ABOVE FREEZING AND
ALLOW RAIN TO AT LEAST MIX IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW TODAY AND 1 INCH TONIGHT FOR PAYA. IF THE PRECIP DID STAY ALL
SNOW THRU THE EVENT...THEY COULD EASILY REACH ADVY IF NOT WARNING
LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES OF THE
INNER CHANNELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN AREA THRU TONIGHT.
ALSO...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR SRN AREA IN GENERAL
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. WILL
USE LOCALLY WINDY FOR ZONE 29 AND LOCALLY BREEZY FOR ZONE 28
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SCA FOR THE SRN INNER CHANNELS AND SRN COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SCA SEAS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS
AS A PERSISTENT 20 KT SE FLOW BUILDS SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE S-CENTRAL AREA EARLY TODAY...AND
OVER THE N-CENTRAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS
FURTHER N WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVER THE FAR
S...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES CLOSER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER AS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
RATHER SHALLOW AND WINDIER AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARMER
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN FAIR CONDITION THROUGH THE MID RANGE. USED
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF TO ABOUT THURSDAY THEN PRIMARILY THE
ECMWF UNTIL SUNDAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE AS THE LATER PERIODS WERE
ALREADY FAIRLY HEAVY INTO THE HPC GUIDANCE. 

A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT SO SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD
BE SUSPECT. POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW FALL AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL BE FINE TUNING THE CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN IN UPCOMING PACKAGES. 

THE MAINLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL PERSIST AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM
KOTZEBUE SOUND TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE GULF/PACIFIC. LONGER RANGE
FORECAST PERIODS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF FRIDAY. 

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ034>036-041-043. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-051-052. 

&&

$$

RWT/BEZENEK