FXUS62 KTBW 011846
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NE INTO THE LA/MA/AL/WEST FL
PANHANDLE REGION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THURSDAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH 50+ KNOT WIND
GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL ACROSS
SOUTH FL THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MAY CAUSE SOME
COASTAL FLOODING FROM MANATEE COUNTY NORTH THROUGH LEVY COUNTY.
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-4FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM MANATEE
NORTH TO HERNANDO DURING HIGH TIDES...AND 4-5FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTY COASTS. IN ADDITION...WILL BE WATCHING
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS/HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AND TURN ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
OVER LAND WILL BE BREEZY.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN
OVERRUNNING TYPE EVENT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND STRATIFORM
RAINS..SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEX
AND ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY (POPS IN THE
80-90% RANGE) FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE BUMPED UP CURRENT
GRIDDED POPS INTO THE 50-70% RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE FRONT AND
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...SO WILL DEPICT 20%
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STARTS TO
LIFT NE TOWARD THE WEST FL PANHANDLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MORNING AND WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE WATERS
WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE SE US AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT STALLS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITIES AS THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
THURSDAY KEEPING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT WITH THE HIGH WINDS (BOTH 20FT AND
TRANSPORT) IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 78 65 74 / 20 60 70 30
FMY 66 82 70 79 / 10 40 70 50
GIF 65 81 65 76 / 20 50 70 30
SRQ 67 80 67 76 / 10 50 70 30
BKV 64 79 60 74 / 30 60 70 20
SPG 68 77 66 74 / 20 60 70 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR TAMPA
BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
