FXUS64 KOUN 041731
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.AVIATION...
THE CENTER OF THE COLD SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN OF
WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE... NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...
ALONG WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS AT MOST. LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY
BACKING TO SW AND S BY THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH MOVES S AND LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER HIGH PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE NOW BUILDING OVER EPAC/AK WILL KEEP US IN A COLD
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE MAINTAINED
DOWNSTREAM FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL/W CONUS AS SYSTEM NOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS S. BASED ON PROJECTED STRENGTH AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE EPAC RIDGE... ASSOCIATED COLD INTRUSIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROBABLY WILL BE DESERVING OF MORE RESPECT THAN
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE GIVING THEM. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD COLD SIDE
ON FORECAST TEMPS AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACKS OF THE SURFACE WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN TROF
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING SCENARIO
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIR IS APT TO REMAIN MORE RESILIENT
THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS AROUND
SUNDAY AND HIGHER POPS AROUND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LESS-AMPLIFIED
UPPER SYSTEM DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY ON THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS PREFERRED... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WX EVENT FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF THE COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. WE WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE HWO LATER THIS
MORNING.
THE MAIN CAVEAT TO THE COLDER SCENARIO IS THAT THE EPAC RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO BE UNDERCUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN
KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT WARM-PHASE ENSO PATTERN... AND WOULD
INDICATE MODERATION OF THE COLD AIR BY LATE NEXT WEEK. WE ARE
GETTING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE COLD SEASON THAT SYSTEMS IN THE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC STILL COULD ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTER-TYPE PRECIP IN THE S
PLAINS GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 22 45 31 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 39 22 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 40 25 53 35 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 40 17 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 25 45 28 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 41 23 51 37 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/23/23
