FXUS62 KTBW 030213 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
913 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009

UPDATED TO EXCLUDE HIGHLANDS COUNTY FROM THE TORNADO WATCH

...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE 
WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...

.DISCUSSION...AT 835 PM EST DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED PREFRONTAL LINE 
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST AND PINELLAS COUNTY.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND WILL 
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. 

THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR LEVY 
COUNTY...AND A NEW ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA 
EXCEPT CHARLOTTE...HIGHLANDS AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM EST. A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER WHICH WAS VERIFIED 
WITH A 60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED NEAR HUDSON BEACH AROUND 812 PM 
EST. 

EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL WESTERN 
FLORIDA POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE WORST WEATHER 
LATE TONIGHT. PEOPLE NEAR THE COASTLINE FROM MANATEE TO LEVY 
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS FOR POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL 
FLOODING AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FURTHER INLAND DURING 
THE NEXT 3 HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY 
PERIODS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. 

DEADLY LIGHTING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS...ALONG WITH 
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR 
TWO ARE ALSO STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. 
   
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO LEVY COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG WITH A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WINDS WILL
CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL
AS HIGH SURF CONDITIONS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM MANATEE
COUNTY NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-3FEET ABOVE MSL FROM MANATEE NORTH TO
HERNANDO DURING HIGH TIDES...AND 3-4FEET ABOVE MSL FOR THE CITRUS
AND LEVY COUNTY COASTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOME OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AND BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NE FLOW IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE 
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE 
LINE OF CONVECTION AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE 
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO 
TPA/PIE/SRQ BY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND BREEZY THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY..THEN DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT STALLS JUST TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG 
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. THE SCA WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH 
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND THE STRONG RIP CURRENT THREAT LINGERING 
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR                
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PINELLAS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-POLK-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
     HARDEE-DESOTO.

     TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST TONIGHT FOR LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR       
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD   
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20              
     NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS   
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER    
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR TAMPA BAY 
     WATERS.

     TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD   
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER    
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...22/AR
SHORT TERM...24/COLSON
AVIATION...69/PRC