FXUS66 KOTX 270523
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
923 PM PST THU NOV 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
LOCATIONS TONIGHT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR TONIGHT...THE 18Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME IN...AND THE 18Z
GFS IS CLEARLY OUTPERFORMING THE NAM FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE
18Z NAM HAS TOTALLY MISPLACED THE MOISTURE BAND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BAND PLACED ABOUT 50-75 MILES TOO
FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FAR TOO WIDESPREAD WITH
PRECIPITATION...IT HAS AT LEAST FOCUSED THE LIFT ALONG THE PROPER
AXIS GENERALLY EXTENDING DOWN I-90 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED STRONGLY TOWARD THE GFS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN STRONG POP REVISIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING LARGE POP REDUCTIONS...WHILE THE HEART
OF THE CWA AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAVE SEEN LARGE INCREASES FOR THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS HAS ALSO CHANGED THE FOCUS FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWS FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 4000 TO
5000 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...VERY FEW LOCATIONS OF NOTE WILL
SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SKI RESORTS OF IDAHO WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY BENEFICIARIES...WITH A FEW INCHES AFTER ALL IS SAID AND
DONE ON FRIDAY. /FRIES
&&
.AVIATION...
A STRONG PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WREAK HAVOC WITH CIGS AND VIS THROUGH FRI MORNING AT MOST SITES. AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
BY MORNING. HOWEVER...BEFORE IT DOES...AREAS OF +RA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY INVOF 1500 TO
2500 FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. /FRIES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 36 40 29 36 29 37 / 100 70 10 10 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 35 42 29 37 30 38 / 100 70 10 20 20 10
PULLMAN 36 42 28 36 29 38 / 90 80 20 10 10 0
LEWISTON 39 48 34 42 30 45 / 80 60 30 10 0 0
COLVILLE 34 42 27 37 31 37 / 70 70 0 20 10 10
SANDPOINT 35 38 29 35 30 34 / 100 80 30 30 20 20
KELLOGG 35 37 31 34 29 34 / 100 90 40 30 30 20
MOSES LAKE 34 46 28 42 29 43 / 90 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 34 47 31 43 33 44 / 100 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 33 45 26 39 30 40 / 40 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
