FXUS64 KOUN 040453
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...
SOME VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/N TX TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL TX. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W THEN SWLY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO
DEVELOP IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
THE SNOW EVENT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MINOR DEAL THIS FAR NORTH. DRY AIR /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS F/ IS PRESENT AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE
STRONGEST LIFT ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS WILL TEND TO FURTHER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. A QUARTER INCH OR
SO OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A FRIGID MORNING IN NORTHERN OK...WITH
LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...AND A FEW SINGLE DIGIT READINGS
ANTICIPATED.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH MEAGER NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM BEING EXTREMELY LOW.
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR...THOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY EXTREMELY COLD...WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE. EVOLUTION OF A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA MOSTLY IN A
DRY SLOT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECASTS
THE SURFACE LOW TO BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
THINKING THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THE COLD AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT IN SUCH A SHORT TIME...WE WILL SIDE
WITH THE GFS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS
POINT... WITH MOSTLY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA... AND A
POSSIBLE MIX OF PRECIP TYPES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK. WITH
A SIZABLE SPREAD AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THIS IS NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY ANY MEANS...BUT THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS BEEN NOTABLE.
TAYLOR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 17 39 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 16 39 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 25 42 25 55 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 7 37 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 15 38 21 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 27 43 25 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/03
