FXUS64 KSHV 250932
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
332 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
QUIETER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MS INTO WESTERN
AL. THE SURFACE LOW IS IN NORTHEAST MO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND POSITIONED OVER
NORTHEAST AR...IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH BY TONIGHT IS
POSITIONED OVER MT/SD/WY AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOSER TO HOME
SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...LEAVING TYR/LFK/GGG WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD ALSO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SUCH...WILL BE CANCELING ALL WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST.
AS SUCH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SO WILL ALLOW
THIS ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. SOME MODELS HINT AT
A WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND DRIFTING TO THE EAST...WHICH COULD BRING VERY SMALL RAIN
CHANCES TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT OUT THESE RAIN CHANCES WITH DRIER AIR AND DECENT HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THIS ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS
FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S
TO UPPER 40S EACH DAY.
A PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CWFA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A RESULT...AND WILL TRAVEL TO THE
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...AND REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING INTERESTING WEATHER TO
THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AS OF NOW INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
COULD SEE SOME TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIP...POSSIBLY EITHER SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS OBTAINED...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SLIGHT CHANGES COULD MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE IN WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED. AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THEN WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO PINPOINT THE PRECIP TYPE.
OTHERWISE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS EAST OF A PRX TO LFK LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...REACHING A ELD-MLU LINE BY 14Z.
THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 26/00Z. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 45 29 52 30 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
MLU 46 28 51 29 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
DEQ 40 23 47 23 45 / 0 0 10 0 10
TXK 42 30 47 30 47 / 0 0 10 10 10
ELD 44 26 49 28 49 / 0 0 10 10 10
TYR 45 28 49 29 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
GGG 44 28 50 28 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
LFK 48 27 50 31 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/14
