FXUS64 KMAF 251159
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

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.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL PER 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND MIXING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WENT BELOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE 
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS IN THE DRY CALM ENVIRONMENT. THE NEXT CHALLENGE
TO THE FORECAST IS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE AREA
CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST THAT SHOULD GET KICKED EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BY ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM. 
NOT READY TO COMMIT THIS RUN TO PUTTING IN PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THESE PERIODS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER PRINTING OUT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
QUESTIONABLE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW/TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME A
NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IS PROGGED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
DEVELOPS LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 130 KNOT JET FORECAST AT 300 MILLIBARS
TO BARREL OUT OF MEXICO. BY SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MAKES AN
IMPACT. THE SPLIT FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO MAKE GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH
A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY IF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SOONER AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN AND OR
SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE BOARD.

WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL BUT SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$