FXUS63 KJKL 231815 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
115 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT SWEEPS OUT FROM THIS INTO EXTREME
WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN FOUND ALONG IT AND TO THE
SOUTH. ADDITIONAL RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON MOSAIC RADAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. BOTH OF THESE PCPN AREAS WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM EAST KENTUCKY TODAY MAKING SKY COVER A GREATER CONCERN. ON
SATELLITE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SHOWS UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
BUT TRENDS WILL MAKE THIS A FLEETING ISSUE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SUNSHINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLEAR PATCH...
RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND TO
THE MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WAA AHEAD OF THE THE MAJOR LOW TO OUR WEST
WILL FURTHER PROMOTE THE MELTING OF REMAINING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S...HIGHEST IN SNOW FREE
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. HAVE FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS IN MIND. 

DID ALSO ADJUST THE WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
ANY MIXED PCPN THAT SNEAKS IN EARLY WILL CLEARLY FALL AS A BRIEF
TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN IN OUR COLDER SPOTS...IF ANYTHING. ALSO
TWEAKED WINDS ON THURSDAY IN THE ZONES. UPDATES TO THE GRIDS AND WEB
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THE ZONES...AND NEW HWO...TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE OH VLY SLOWLY YIELDS TO A STRENGTHENING LOW THAT IS CATCHING
UP TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH... BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY AND SPREADING TO THE
ENTIRE FA BY THU. THIS SHOULD MELT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW... EVEN ON THE
STUBBORN NORTH FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SNOW PACK GONE THE INCOMING
RAIN SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION CONTINUES FROM PREVIOUS...

THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

QPF FROM AVAILABLE MODELS REMAINS LESS THAN AN INCH FOR THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND RAIN SHADOWING EFFECT FROM
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY MEAN LESS THAN A HALF INCH
OVER THE UPPER REACHES OF THE CUMBERLAND... KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY
BASINS IN OUR AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD WATER PROBLEMS FROM
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOW MELT FROM OUR
RATHER LARGE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW PACK... ALTHOUGH RIVERS WILL RUN
HIGH.

THE WIND THREAT ALSO LOOKS MINIMAL AS TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OFF BLACK MOUNTAIN THOUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENT (50-KT PLUS) 850 MB JET PROGGED
AND PERPENDICULAR FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. LOCALIZED ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS OR GREATER WILL THUS BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY... BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
BETTER DEFINE THE THREAT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT LEAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SLOWER IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN NAEFS MEAN. NONETHELESS... A
PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PROGGED WEST TO SOUTHWEST MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY... BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A 20 POP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS PINWHEELING
SHORTWAVES AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING A SNOW
SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY WEAKEN/MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY EVEN HAVE A CHANCE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH A BIT OF A WARM UP EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO BEGIN ORGANIZING
TO OUR SOUTHWEST... BUT ITS IMPACTS ON OUR AREA... IF ANY... WILL
LIKELY NOT BE FELT UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DO EXPECT
SOME MVFR BR TO AGAIN DEVELOP AT JKL TONIGHT AND TO LESSER EXTENT AT
SME AND LOZ TOWARD DAWN. JKL COULD SEE IFR VIS AS WELL AND THAT
POTENTIAL WAS ADDRESSED BY A TEMPO GROUP FROM 10Z THROUGH 14Z. EXPECT
NO MORE THAN A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY WITH ANY
SHOWER CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH A GUSTY COMPONENT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT AND MATURE COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/GREIF
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...GREIF