FXUS61 KOKX 151751
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1251 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COASTAL SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THOROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WINDS
MORE OR LESS BRIDGING ACROSS THE WEAK FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING W/NW FLOW AND TEMPERATURES THE /WARMEST/ OF THE
WEEK...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50F.
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS COLD ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. DECENT CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY COULD
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL MOVE INTO PLACE...HOWEVER THEY
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR INLAND AREAS...AND TO NEAR
FREEZING FOR COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETS UP TEMPORARY RESIDENCE OFF THE TIP OF MAINE. MODELS
STILL NOT HANDLING THIS SET UP WELL....HOWEVER THEY ARE IN ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT ONE CAN GET A GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER THIS REGIME AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT A
DOWNWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS THE FOCUS...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.
AS THIS LOW SITS AND SPINS...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY WITH VARYING RESULTS DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU BUY INTO. THE BIGGEST /CONCERN/ WILL BE THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM THAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND TRAVEL NEAR THE NOTORIOUS 70W/40N BENCHMARK.
AGAIN...MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY...SO WILL NOT GO INTO A
LOT OF DETAIL AT THIS TIME...AND WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION AS TIME DRAWS NEARER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT POISED JUST WEST OF NYC TERMINALS AT 17Z...AND WILL
PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. WIND SHIFT WILL BE SUBTLE WITH A
GRADUAL VEERING THIS AFTERNOON FROM 270 TO 310 AT AROUND 10 KT.
VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG UPPER JET. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES TO THE NW OF THE NYC
TERMINALS.
GENERALLY WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 THRU 21Z...THEN 310-330 TONIGHT
INTO WED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AFTER 05Z.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...PRIOR TO 21Z WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LEFT OF 310
DEGREES...AFTER 21Z WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
15/16Z 26009KT
15/17Z 27010KT
15/18Z 27011KT
15/19Z 29012KT
15/20Z 30012KT
15/21Z 30013KT
15/22Z 30013KT
15/23Z 31013KT
16/00Z 31013KT
16/01Z 31013KT
16/02Z 31014KT
16/03Z 31014KT
KJFK...PRIOR TO 21Z WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LEFT OF 310
DEGREES...AFTER 21Z WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES.
KLGA...PRIOR TO 21Z WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LEFT OF 310
DEGREES...AFTER 21Z WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES.
KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
OUTLOOK 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
WED AFT THROUGH THU...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR EXPECTED BUT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL CSTL
STORM FOR WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL.
LATE IN THE DAY SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY ALSO REACH SMALL CRAFT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES...WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE WATER AND WILL
LIKELY GUST RIGHT AROUND GALE FORCE ON ALL THE AREA WATERS...SO HAVE
POSTED A GALE WARNING STARTING TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER STRONG BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL AGAIN ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO GALE FORCE
ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE THE GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE GALE GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
TRANQUIL FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...GALES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DW
