FXUS61 KPHI 281714
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1214 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ISOBARS SURROUNDING THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTEND
DOWN TO THE FORECAST REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AIR
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND RELAX THE WIND GRADIENT WITH A CONSIDERABLE
DROP IN THE WIND SPEEDS. THE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER MOST PLACES, BUT BETWEEN
16Z AND 17Z MPO STILL WAS GUSTING TO 40 KTS. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON, MONROE
AND SUSSEX, NJ COUNTIES IN RESPONSE. WE HAVE LET IT GO ELSEWHERE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
VIRTUALLY CLOUD-FREE. THE LAST PLACE TO LOSE THEM SEEMS TO BE FAR
NORTHWEST NJ, AND WE CARRY A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THERE.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A BROAD RIDGE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SPLIT FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE POCONOS AND MID 50S FAR SOUTH. THE DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GATHERS MOISTURE THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIVE A
SURFACE FRONT EAST DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BREAKOUT ON MONDAY BUT A HEAVIER RAIN FORMS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH GOOD UVM ALL ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEAR AS THROUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND ITS
CENTER SHOULD PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, WITH LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A
FEW POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERHAPS RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS.
AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENG TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS
CREATED A STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS EASTWARD AND THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY, THIS DIFFERENCE IN
PRESSURE WILL DECREASE AND THE WIND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH. THE
WIND APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST IN THE AM, DECREASING IN THE AFTN AND
SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. ALL IN ALL, VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SC EARLY AND A GENLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE FROM NR THE GRTLKS TO SERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AND THERE IS A CHC OF SOME VSBY OR CIG
OBSTRUCTIONS, DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RNFL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GALE CONDS
CONTINUE EARLY THIS AM. WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE PSBL EARLY, WITH
A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
ERN CANADA MOVING FURTHER AWAY. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER
THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AM.
A CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE AREA
WATERS ON MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION LOCATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND QUIET THINGS DOWN
UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG
