FXUS62 KTBW 061820
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
120 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER EXTREME SE FL (REMNANTS OF WEAK SFC LOW FROM
THIS MORNING). THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WHILE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAS PROVIDED THE CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD FOG. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 5MPH...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE A LOW CLOUD DECK
DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING ON
MONDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP AT A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG OR GET TOO BAD.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE (OR WHAT'S LEFT OF IT) MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT
WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY RAIN AS THERE IS SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE. WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS INCREASE
SHARPLY EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND EVEN SOME 80 DEGREE TEMPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY...BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HAVE MADE ONLY A MINOR CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST ON TUESDAY...TO ADD A CHANCE (30%) OF RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY...SO EVEN WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NATURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS PERSISTING
ALONG FRONT. A WEAK U/L DISTURBANCE WILL OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF TAMPA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT...WITH
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT MONDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE UP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AND THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
LOOSENS UP...SO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE AFTER TOMORROW
MORNING AND FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND BEGIN TO PICK UP IN SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 76 61 79 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 61 80 62 83 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 58 78 60 81 / 10 10 10 20
SRQ 58 77 61 79 / 20 10 10 20
BKV 53 76 56 80 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 58 75 62 77 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...13/OGLESBY
