FXUS62 KTAE 240253
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
953 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.UPDATE...THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR
AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS (MID TO UPPER 40S). THE LATEST 4KM WRF RUN SHOWED THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...THEN SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NO
MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 00Z FRI. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND 
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. AFTER 06Z... 
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP AND 
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA BY 12Z...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY 
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL 
FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR 
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH ANY STRONG STORMS AND/OR 
HEAVY RAIN. 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO 
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM 
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE 
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

&&

$$

GIBBS/BLOCK