FXUS64 KLUB 040537
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING.
NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISBYS OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AREA OF
SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AND CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/

SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH DECENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY...WHILE PRECIPITATION 
OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM LOW MOISTURE. COLD CANADIAN 
AIRMASS JUTTED INTO THE AREA THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EDGING MORE TO 
THE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE WHILE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FILTER 
SOUTHWARD. WE HAVE SEEN A REDUCTION IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION 
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE INTO MUCH 
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND JET BECOME BETTER ALIGNED 
OVER THE AREA. WITH PRE-MENTIONED CONFLICT...MODEL PRECIPITATION 
OUTPUT FOR THE MOST PART APPEARS LAME. GENERAL FAVOR REMAINS FOR .05 
TO .10 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION MAINLY WESTERN THIRD OF 
OUR AREA...AND GIVEN DRY NATURE OF SNOW WOULD MAKE AN INCH OR SO 
VERY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERED EXPANDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT 
EAST OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION OUTPUT HAS 
REMAINED CONSISTENTLY LOW. STILL...WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT SNOWFALL 
MAY ACCUMULATE WITH SOME EASE AND COULD CREATE HAZARDS WORTHY OF AN 
ADVISORY. THIS REMAINS TOPIC OF AN EARLIER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT 
AND FOR NEXT SHIFT TO PONDER.

OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EASE UP LATER TONIGHT AND BE MOSTLY 
OVER BY SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INCREASING SUN...FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY AFTER A COLD START. WINDS TURNING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY SUGGEST A BIT OF A
WARMING TREND ON THE WAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES...WITH 
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM 
SYSTEM TRACKS BY. 

INITIALLY...DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE 
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRIDAY/S DEPARTING SYSTEM QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OR WSW IN 
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE 
WESTERN TIER OF THE NATION. BREEZY S/SW SFC WINDS ON THE SW 
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO 
THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AN EJECTING S/W TROUGH 
/TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA/ FROM THE LARGER WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROPEL 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FROPA 
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THOUGH IT WILL COOL HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 
30S AND 40S TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. 

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS WITH THE NEXT MORE 
POTENT SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN HIGH 
PLAINS NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST...
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH TRANSLATES OFF TO THE
EAST. ECMWF REMAINS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...WITH THE
SYSTEM PASSING OFF WELL TO THE NORTH...LIKELY KEEPING THE REGION
DRY. ALL SAID...WE DECIDED THERE WAS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO BUMP UP
POPS SLIGHTLY TO INTRODUCE A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TUE
AFTN/EVNG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHER QUESTION IS
JUST HOW SOON NEXT STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN...THOUGH
REGARDLESS IT SHOULD PLUNGE THROUGH NO LATER THEN TUESDAY EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR COULD ALSO HAVE IMPACTS OF WHAT MODE
ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WINTRY WEATHER. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
NOW...THOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS.
BEYOND THAT...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS SOME FORM OF
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS...THOUGH STUBBORN SFC RIDGING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  31  17  46  19 /  40  10   0   0   0 
TULIA         14  34  19  46  27 /  30  10   0   0   0 
PLAINVIEW     14  32  21  45  27 /  40  10   0   0   0 
LEVELLAND     18  33  19  46  27 /  70  20   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       18  34  21  45  30 /  60  20   0   0   0 
DENVER CITY   20  31  20  43  26 /  80  30   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    20  33  20  45  33 /  70  30   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     19  41  20  50  31 /  20  10   0   0   0 
SPUR          21  37  23  46  29 /  40  20   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     23  42  24  49  31 /  30  30   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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