FXUS63 KEAX 261124
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/312 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
REGARDS TO HOW WARM WE MAY GET HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

SYNOPSIS:
A WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WITH A NICE 
DRYING SIGNATURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAIN/SNOW WAS 
OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING 
INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW 
PRESSURE AREA WAS CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE 
MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN 
MISSOURI WAS RESULTING IN STRONGER OVERNIGHT WINDS. WRAP AROUND 
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WAS HELPING TO KEEP 
TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI A BIT WARMER THAN 
EXPECTED. 

THANKSGIVING DAY:
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS IN INDICATING A MIXING HEIGHT TO ABOUT 900MB. USING
THIS LEVEL YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDER ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW BUT ALSO DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LINGERING IN THAT AREA THROUGH MID DAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
AWAY SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY SHALLOW
DEPTH TO THE MIXING...ONLY TO ABOUT 950MB...SINCE THE AIR ALOFT IS SO
WARM MIXING FROM THAT LEVEL STILL PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN TO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI MAY MISS OUT ON THE WARMEST WEATHER BUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S ARE STILL EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A BIT HIGHER MIXING LEVEL IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND AS THE 
WARMER AIR ALOFT SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THE AREA OF 
WARMEST FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHIFTS TOO. BUT HIGHS ARE STILL 
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHWEST 
MISSOURI TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH 
AN UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE AREA NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED 
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER. ALL THAT SAID IT LOOKS LIKE A FANTASTIC 
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SUNDAY:
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EITHER LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD END THE AREAS RENDEZVOUS WITH 60 DEGREE WEATHER AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE PRETTY MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE 
DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM GETS PHASED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
JET ENERGY. THE AREA MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE JET REGION ON SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON SO WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT CHANCE POPS SEEM VERY 
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. 

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...
HAD INTRODUCED LLWS INTO THE TAFS AFTER CLEARING TOOK PLACE AT THE 
TERMINALS. VWP FROM KEAX AND TMCI RADARS WERE SHOWING 40 KTS OF WIND 
AT 2K FT...BUT LATHROP PROFILER NOT SUPPORTING THIS STRONG OF WIND 
WITH ONLY 25 KTS...AND MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS OF ONLY 
31KTS...THUS WITH NEW ISSUANCE...WILL LEAVE THE LLWS OUT.  

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS 
OF WINDS THIS MORNING AS INITIAL MIXING TAKES PLACE...BUT NOT 
EXPECTING IT TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. WINDS WILL 
GO LIGHT TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. 

PC

&&

.CLIMATE...

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AT MCI AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. AS OF 09Z MCI
HAD ONLY FALLEN TO 36 BUT WITH THE CLEARING LINE BASICALLY SITTING
OVER THE AIRPORT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S STILL.
AT THE MOMENT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AT MCI AND FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
NOVEMBER REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30 DEGREES. HERE ARE THE TOP 5 LATEST
OCCURRENCES OF 28 DEGREE LOW TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS CITY:

RANK        DATE              YEAR
-----      ------            ------
1          NOV 29             1905
2          NOV 27             1944
3          NOV 26             1902
4          NOV 26             1958
5          NOV 25          1928, 2009

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$