FXUS61 KBGM 030816
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEW YORK TODAY, WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. COLDER AIR AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TO INTERMIX WITH
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NY AND PA THIS MORNING. SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG WIND SHIFT LINE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
THIS MORNING. RUC13 SEEMED TO HANDLE DEW POINTS THE BEST.
ADJUSTING FOR THEIR VALUES, IT APPEARS THETA-E VALUES OF 315-318K
WILL BE IN PLACE BY 12Z. WITH THE UPPER KINEMATIC SUPPORT, THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ALOFT, AND CAUSE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY NOON, AS MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAPID DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING, BUT THE EXISTENCE OF UL TROF AXIS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUGGESTS ERIE
MAY GET INVOLVED WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT UP THE LAKE PLAIN. LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
THE BANDS WOULD BE ORIENTED SW TO NE, AND REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER SEASONABLY COLD AND FAIRLY QUIET BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS EXCITING AS
YESTERDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST VS.
WEST-NORTHWEST...AND FAVORING MULTI-BANDS. IN ADDITION DESPITE DELTA
T'S AROUND 20 SUPPORTING BORDERLINE MODERATE INSTABILITY...LAKE BANDS
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY ATMOSPHERE IN ADDITION TO THE SHORTER
FETCH OVER THE LAKE. LAKE BANDS MAY NOT MAKE A HUGE PUSH WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKE BY MONDAY AS MEAN LAYER WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 KTS.
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AREAS ON A 310 TO 330 WIND VECTOR...IE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.
OUR WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO THROW SOME LIGHT QPF OUR WAY TUESDAY
WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE LAKES. WE SHOULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT FOR LIGHT SNOW. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOPRES WILL MVE WEST OF THE REGIO THIS MRNG. DVLPG DRY SLOT
HAS ALREADY ENDED THE HEAVIEST RAIN...WITH JUST SOME LGT SCT SHWRS
STILL MVG THRU. DRIER AIR WITH A SHALLOW MIXED LYR BLO THE INV HAS
ALLOWED FOR VFR VSBYS...AND CIGS GNRLY IN THE MVFR OR VFR RANGE.
XPCT LTL CHG OVRNGT AS THE LOPRES MVES NORTH. COLD FNT WILL MVE
THRU LATE TNGT AND INCRS MIXING SO XPCT A GRADUAL IMPRMT IN CONDS
TWRD DAYBREAK AND THRU THE DAY THU WITH CONT VFR CONDS INTO EARLY
FRI.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE FNT AND CONT
GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...
THUR NGT...VFR. AREAS MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY
KRME.
FRI...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME EARLY.
SAT/SUN...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME/KSYR.
MON...VFR
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/DJN
