FXUS63 KGRB 262211
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
411 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...HEAVY SNOW TOTALS WERE NOTED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. SIX INCHES WAS ALREADY REPORTED AT TWO RIVERS AS OF 
1 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTY AS 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON. 

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE HEADLINES FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE
WAS TO UPGRADE SOUTHERN MARINETTE AND SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES TO 
A WARNING. IMPRESSIVE BAND OF SNOW FROM 25 DBZ TO 35 DBZ NOTED 
FROM OFFSHORE MANITOWOC COUNTY AND EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MARINETTE AND SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINETTE AND SOUTHERN OCONTO WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WILL AROUND AN INCH OR TWO. 

THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING...
THEN TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH ONLY 
MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. 

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD MOVE LITTLE WITH SOME REBOUND IN 
TEMPERATURES NOTED ON SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL AWAY FROM THE WARMER 
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT SAT. A BUILDING UP RDG ACROSS THE
COAST/WRN CANADA WL BRING A PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS BY END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PATN WL BRING COOLER...A BIT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NE WI WITH LK EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH SYNOPTIC SNOWS WITH THIS END-OF-THE-WEEK
SYSTEM AS GULF MSTR IS NO WHERE TO BE FOUND.

EVEN THO MAIN SYSTEM CONTS TO PULL AWAY FROM WI SUNDAY NGT...A
PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVR THE RGN. SOME OF THE MDLS
SHOW A WEAK SHRTWV DROPPING SE THRU THE STATE WHICH COULD SET OFF
FLURRIES...HOWEVER MAIN EMPHASIS FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE
OVR NRN WI WHERE LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. FAVORED
AREAS OF VILAS CNTY COULD SEE AN INCH OF NEW SNOW SO HAVE GONE
LIKELY THERE. CLDS EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT SUNDAY NGT WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

A CDFNT IS FCST TO DROP DUE SOUTH THRU WI ON MON AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE RGN. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF
THE COLDEST AIR APRS TO BE AIMED MORE AT THE ERN GREAT LKS WHERE
8H TEMPS CRASH TO AROUND -28C OVR SE ONTARIO BY 00Z TUE. HAVE
FLURRIES ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA...BUT AGAIN MAIN FOCUS TO BE VILAS
CNTY AS FAVORABLE TRAJS AND CAA FAVOR LK EFFECT. HOWEVER...FCST
SNDNGS DO SNOW A LOW-LVL INVERSION AT 3K FT AND A DRY AIR
INTRUSION ADVECTING SEWD FROM HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS. FOR
NOW...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION (LESS THAN AN INCH). HAVE ALSO KNOCKED OFF A COUPLE
OF DEGS FROM THE PREV FCST AND WL MENTION BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OVR
ERN WI. 

THIS HI PRES BUILDS EWD MON NGT AND RESIDES JUST TO OUR WEST BY
DAYBREAK. CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WNDS AND FRESH SNOW ON THE
GROUND COULD LEAD TO A COLD NGT ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
DROP BLO ZERO IN THE COLD SPOTS OF NRN WI...WHILE LKSHR LOCALES
HOVER AROUND 10 ABV. THE HI PRES SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LKS ON TUE ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO DVLP ACROSS WI. DESPITE
THE RETURN TO S-SW WNDS AND WEAK WAA...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE TEENS NORTH/LWR 20S ELSEWHERE. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THE
COLD START TO THE DAY EVEN WITH SOME MIXED SUNSHINE TO TRY AND
HELP.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE UPR TROF PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS
TUE NGT AND THEN AS THE TROF REACHES THE UPR MIDWEST ON WED...A
CDFNT GETS SHOVED EAST TOWARD WI. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR
SOME LGT SNOW TO DVLP IN WEAK ISEN LIFT AHD OF THE FNTL BNDRY.
THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL POP FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH
MAX TEMPS A GOOD FIVE DEGS WARMER THAN TUE. THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU
WI WED NGT WITH THE UPR TROF REACHING THE WRN GREAT LKS ON THU.
BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA WITH A BIT OF A
BREAK COME THU WITH LITTLE FORCING OR LIFT EVIDENT IN THE MDLS. WL
KEEP A VERY SML CHC OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FCST AS CAA MAY
BE ABLE TO SQEEZE OUT SOME FLAKES.

UPR TROF IS THEN TO RESIDE OVR GREAT LKS RGN THRU FRI AS ANOTHER
BIG STORM IS PROGGED TO MOV UP THE EAST COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW OVR
THE FCST AREA SHOULD KEEP LGT SNOW SHWR OR FLURRY ACTIVITY GOING
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED SNOW SHWRS OVR VILAS CNTY WHERE SOME LK
EFFECT MAY KICK ON. NE WI LOCKED UNDER A NORTHERLY WND ALOFT BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES DOTTING THE
LANDSCAPE. MAIN CONCERN WOULD REMAIN NEAR THE MI BORDER AS NORTH
WNDS PERISST AND LK EFFECT POSSIBILITY REMAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS SNOW SPREADS WESTWARDS AROUND AN UPPER LOW. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY
IMPROVE SOME LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO GREEN BAY
TO KEWAUNEE LINE AS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ013-020-021-
031-037>039-045-048-049.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ022-040-050.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ073-074.

&&

$$
ECKBERG/KALLAS