FXUS62 KMFL 031129 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
629 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY ACROSS
THE CWA...AND AFFECT KAPF TAF SITE BETWEEN 13-14Z AND THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. SO WILL PUT IN A TEMPO FOR
KAPF TAF SITE WITH VIS DROPPING DOWN TO 4 WHICH IS IN THE MVFR
CONDITION. FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH FOR
THE MORNING HOURS WITH VCTS AFTER 17Z...BUT WILL NOT PUT ANY
TEMPOS IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES DUE TO THE UNKOWN TIMING.
THE WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DONE BY 04/03Z TONIGHT
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. SO WILL SO THIS IN
THE IN THE FORECAST TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT SECTIONS OF GLADES...HENDRY AND MAYBE COLLIER COUNTY
BEFORE DAY BREAK TODAY AND SO WL INDICATE HIGHEST POPS TODAY FOR
THAT PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STILL WL EXPECT
SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE STRONG STORMS COULD STILL
AFFECT LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TODAY...LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR
OBS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
LAKE OKEE. THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN GULF OF MEX JUST WEST OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS UNDERGOING MAJOR SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT ACTUALLY
STALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND KEEPING SOUTH
FLORIDA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
A SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE DISTURBANCES MOVING NEWD AROUND THE
BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND OVER THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE
PENINSULA RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND SO WL KEEP HIGH SCT TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY SAT MORNING AND
TO THE CAROLINAS BY SAT EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA SAT EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND STARTING LATE SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER, WL STILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
RAPIDLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A RETURN FLOW GETS
ESTABLISHED BRINGING PATCHES OF MOISTURE/SHOWERS TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES BUT WL QUICKLY
RECUPERATE AND MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL AS
THE SFC FLOW TURNS NE/E BY MONDAY.
MARINE...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (20 KTS) AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINERS STILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS ANY
SHOWERS/STORM TODAY COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS
CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME N-NE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE. THIS LOW COULD GENERATE
A N/NE SWELL THAT COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
SOUTH FLORIDA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 67 81 68 / 50 60 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 70 83 71 / 40 40 40 50
MIAMI 84 69 84 70 / 40 40 40 40
NAPLES 80 66 79 67 / 50 60 60 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB
