FXUS62 KMFL 021132
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
632 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES SE TO SSE WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MOST OF THE TERMINALS EXPECTED TO HAVE
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT STILL
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION SHOULD START ABOUT 00Z FOR TERMINALS KAPF AND KPBI WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED. FOR REMAINING TERMINALS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WITH VCSH ASSIGNED AT 00Z. STILL A LITTLE TOO
SOON TO ANTICIPATE TIMING OF ANTICIPATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALL TERMINALS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT AND WITH GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.
IN FACT, GFS LATEST RUN IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND NAM40. THAT
MAKES THE FORECAST A BIT EASIER. SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NE TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
AND TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING AND TO NRN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THU EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE NOW TAKING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH KEEPING BEST
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA, THEREFORE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
HOWEVER...A SWATH OF 30-40 KTS LOW LEVEL(850MB) WINDS COULD AFFECT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. ANY STRONG CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST THAT STRONG AT THE SURFACE. SO WILL INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE ZFP FOR AREAS AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND WEST COAST TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, HOWEVER WL NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO, AS MOST OF THE ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED
NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA AND A FROPA IS NOT FORESEEN
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK
TO MODERATE DISTURBANCES STREAMING NEWD AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE PENINSULA
RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM EAST TX TO SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SAT AND THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SAT
EVENING WITH A DRYING TREND STARTING LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WL NOT COMPLETELY GO DRY AND WL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
RETURN FLOW MAY BE ESTABLISHED AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA BRINGING PATCHES OF MOISTURE/SHOWERS TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WL EXPECT ONLY FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES
MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.
MARINE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AND SHIFT TO S/SW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEX WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONDITIONS WILL BE
INDICATED FOR BOTH, ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TODAY,
HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME NW SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 70 83 66 / 30 70 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 72 83 69 / 20 60 50 40
MIAMI 85 72 84 68 / 20 50 50 40
NAPLES 83 70 80 66 / 30 70 60 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
