FXUS64 KLZK 111155 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
TO THE EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM HEADS SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY DAWN
SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6 AND 10
KNOTS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT 4 TO
6 KNOTS. (46)
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S...WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY
ON THE RISE...EVIDENT IN SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPTS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HRS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE SRN CA COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EAST AND
SERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL
MOISTURE INCREASE TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES LATE FRI AND SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TX GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
COAST...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT MORNING.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE BELOW FREEZING SAT MORNING AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH. SO...A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HRS SAT BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE STATE...BUT MOISTURE IN THIS REGION LOOKS LIMITED DURING THE
PERIOD THE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS
PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN BY MID
MORNING SAT. BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS SE OF THE STATE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUN INTO MON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
FOR AR. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH BEST POPS OVER THE SRN AND SERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE WELL SE OF THE STATE INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE LONG TERM...WITH DRY...COOL CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TOWARD THE GULF COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS ON
TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. UNDER THE HIGH...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 41 28 41 34 / 0 10 30 30
CAMDEN AR 45 36 43 39 / 10 50 60 30
HARRISON AR 40 29 43 36 / 0 10 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 32 40 36 / 10 40 40 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 31 39 35 / 10 30 40 30
MONTICELLO AR 44 35 43 41 / 10 50 60 40
MOUNT IDA AR 43 32 41 34 / 10 30 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 28 42 34 / 0 10 20 20
NEWPORT AR 41 28 41 35 / 0 10 50 50
PINE BLUFF AR 43 33 41 38 / 10 40 50 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 29 39 33 / 0 20 30 20
SEARCY AR 42 29 39 33 / 0 20 40 30
STUTTGART AR 43 32 40 37 / 10 30 50 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46
