FXUS64 KLIX 051005
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...
WHAT A NIGHT. THE EARLIEST MEASURED SNOW EVENT ON RECORD FOR THE
AREA. PATCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND THIS MORNING SINCE
TEMPS WERE ABLE TO QUICKLY DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER MOVED EAST. THIS MAY BE PICKED UP ON VIS SAT IMAGERY
LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
DON'T KNOW HOW FAR SE THE FREEZING MARK WILL GET BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD GET INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS
SW OF LAKE MAUREPAS. WILL HANDLE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND BRIEF
DAY SHIFT OF UPCOMING FREEZE FOR TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A
HARD FREEZE EITHER TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S WILL STILL DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A QUICK WARMING TREND. TODAY LOOKS
COLD WHILE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS MOVE WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH MON MORNING BUT WILL NOT HELP COOL TEMPS MUCH. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF A VERY
POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WED MORNING. WE SAY
POWERFUL BECAUSE A 990MB LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ROCKIES WOULD DEFINITELY FIT THAT DISCRIPTION. THE MAJORITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE SFC LOW
TRACKS...AND IT WILL MAKE HEADLINES. BUT AS STRONG AS THIS COLD
FRONT LOOKS...I WOULD NOT DISMISS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
TS EVEN THIS FAR SOUTH.
WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL STRONG DISTURBANCES RIPPLE OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FIRST MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OVER OUR AREA BUT
LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK MONDAY. THE SECOND IS QUITE STRONG AND
MOVES EAST OUT OF SE TX WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN MISS. IT IS THE TUE MORNING DISTURBANCE
THAT CONCERNS ME. AS USUAL THOUGH...MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH SPACIAL RESOLUTION CONCERNING MESOSCALE FEATURES. WILL START
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ON AT
LEAST TUE. THE MONDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT WOULD
LIKE TO REVISIT ON CONCURRENT MODEL RUNS.
.LONG TERM...
ONCE THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED...COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS. BUT GLOBAL SOLUTIONS
ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM FOR THE AREA BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS ONE SO FAR OUT...SIMPLY WILL NOT ELABORATE ON
IT ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. CIGS HAD LOWERED
TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLIER AND NOW GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. WINDS HAVE REMAINED 5 TO 10
KTS AT TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MID-DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WITH BRISKER WINDS OVER LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
.COASTAL...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA. KEPT WINDS UP THROUGH MID-DAY...
NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM OVER LAKES/THROUGH
NOON OVER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. BY LATE
SUNDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
BEGINNING OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AS WINDS PICK UP OVER COASTAL
WATERS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS AREA
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS INCREASING TUESDAY TO ABOUT 5 TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT AND THEN TO NEAR 9 FEET BY WESNESDAY ON OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 28 56 48 / 0 0 20 50
BTR 49 31 61 52 / 0 0 30 50
MSY 50 37 62 56 / 0 0 20 50
GPT 49 30 57 51 / 0 0 10 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND
WEST FELICIANA.
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
