FXUS62 KTBW 091936
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...AT THE CURRENT TIME THE WARM HUMID FLOW IS CAUSING
A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG TO CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE COAST WATERS.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF THINNING...BUT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTH. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THIS FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE COAST FROM VENICE NORTHWARD.
FOR TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY AND INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
AND LEFT CHANCE POPS FROM SARASOTA TO AVON PARK NORTH AND A BAND
OF SLIGHT CHANCE FROM VENICE TO SEBRING...WITH SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
THURSDAY A WEAK OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LIKELY
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG PROBLEM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN
INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. MAV MOS NUMBERS APPEAR TO
ONCE AGAIN OCCUR AFTER 12Z DURING MID-MORNING THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...IF YOU LOOK AT THE 12Z
TEMPERATURES ON THE MAV IN THESE AREAS YOU SEE THAT THE READINGS
ARE 3 TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER AND HAVE GENERALLY FORECASTED
READINGS CLOSER TO THE 12Z READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN
DURING THURSDAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE RATHER
COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AIR IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE LONG TERM. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN LIFTING A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA BACK INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. 30-50 PERCENT POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT THEN PUSHES BACK SOUTH AND EITHER CLEARS THE STATE OR
DISSIPATES BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...EXCEPT MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...A PERSISTENT BANK OF SEA FOG WAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE
COASTLINE BY THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE NOW QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AR
SRQ...PIE AND TPA. WILL KEEP A TEMPO FOR CEILINGS 500-800 FEET AT
SRQ...BUT THE REMNANT SEA FOG AND CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY 20Z.
WINDS ARE BECOMING GUSTY...BUT SHOULD RELAX AROUND SUNRISE.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 68 51 67 / 40 70 20 20
FMY 71 80 58 76 / 10 40 20 20
GIF 69 69 50 67 / 30 70 20 20
SRQ 69 72 55 70 / 30 60 20 20
BKV 65 65 45 64 / 40 70 20 20
SPG 68 68 53 67 / 30 70 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES
