FXUS63 KDMX 302359
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
600 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET WILL ALLOW WINDS 
TO DIMINISH SOME...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP A GENTLE 
BREEZE BLOWING IN MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT 
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TO NOT DROP AS FAR AS LAST NIGHT...AND TO BE 
REASONABLY HANDLED BY THE GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET BLEND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT MILD WX PATTERN ABOUT TO COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT BY WED... 
BUT STILL NICE THROUGH TUES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST AIR TO 
JUST BYPASS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. DESPITE THAT H850 TEMPS STILL 
WARM INTO THE 6 TO 8C RANGE FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FRONT 
ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR TO SLOWLY FILTER IN 
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH 15 TO 20F DROP IN HIGH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 24 HOURS. SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT TO DROP SOUTH 
WED NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEEPENS EAST.  ALONG WITH THAT 
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL H500 LOW WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND BEGIN TO CUT 
OFF...BECOMING A PARENT OR ANCHOR LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR 
SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP COLD TEMPERATURES PLUS STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL 
PROMOTE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATE 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DONT SUGGEST 
GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH FOR THURSDAY...BUT DO SHOW 5000FT HIGH RH WITH 
THE ENTIRE CLOUD IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BELOW 750MB.  CAPE IS RATHER 
LIMITED...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY 
NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH FLURRIES CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SOUNDINGS REMAIN 
STEEP OVERNIGHT AND WILL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH 
RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS PER THE EURO MODEL 
YESTERDAY...THE GFS IS FINALLY SLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE 
UKMET FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO 
AGAIN APPEAR AT DAY 5 AND BEYOND WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN LEADING THE 
PACK OF CHANGE. THOUGH A PATTERN CHANGE IS DEFINITELY IN THE OFFING 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS AND THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL 
AND THEN A MORE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AFT THE 7 DAY PERIOD...THE GFS 
IS ON TRACK TO HAVE THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY LATE SAT 
AND SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS 
SCENARIO WOULD BRING SNOW TO THE STATE WHILE THE 00Z EURO SUGGESTED 
A MODERATION FOR SUNDAY. NEW 12Z EURO SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY ENERGY 
MOVING EAST UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD 
THE SLOWER EURO MODEL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY FORECASTS. PATTERN 
STILL TO UNDERGO A DRAMATIC CHANGE FOR THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THIS 
FORECAST...AND IT APPEARS MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION...
01/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH 
SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOYER
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS