FXUS62 KMLB 010900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TODAY...MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS UNDERNEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG JET LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S./GULF COAST STATES. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY LATER IN
THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MORE OF AN AVIATION CONCERN
BUT SOME LOW STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS ON EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BRIEFLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
WILL ALLOW OUR EARLY MORNING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH. NOT HOLDING OUT A LOT OF HOPE BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO
TITUSVILLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND
AROUND 80 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTHWARD FROM VERO BEACH.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS THE MID ATLC COAST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTH GOMEX AND SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES WITH TRAILING STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT LEAVING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE IN THE EVENING/NIGHT.
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
5-10 MPH INTERIOR & 10-15 MPH NEAR THE COAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO. THE WARM & MOIST AIR
MASS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS ELEVATED IN THE 60S AND EVEN NEAR 70
DEGREES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TREASURE COAST.
WEDNESDAY-THU...ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED EARLY WED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ASCD WITH DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF APCHG SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE. GUID TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINEAR ALBEIT
ROBUST KINEMATIC PROFILE DEVELOPING OVER THE PENINSULA BY WED
EVENING WITH AROUND 40 TO 45 KT WIND @ H85 COINCIDING WITH APPROACH
OF MAX UVM. RAPID POLEWARD MOTION OF PARENT LOW SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HELICITY CONCERNS TO CONFINED NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL DIAGNOSIS OF GFS V WIND COMPONENT AND MSLP ANOMALIES
YIELDS ABSOLUTE VALUES COMPARABLE TO RECENTLY ARCHIVED COOL SEASON
SEVERE WEATHER/ISOLD TORNADO EPISODES. THE ENVIRONMENT AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO STRAIGHT LINE WIND DMG
POTENTIAL WITH POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICIES.
A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WL LEAD TO GRADUAL INCREASE IN POP
BEST THUNDER COVERAGE IN A 12 HOUR WINDOW AFT 00Z THU WITH
SLOWING SFC BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD S FL DURING THU. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY WL KEEP PRECIP MENTIONED IN
FORECAST.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD HAS BECOME LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
SLOWING OF THE FRONT OVER S FL AND LIFTING OF BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE NORTH ON A POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING SITUATION (INDICATED BY GFS
AND PARTIALLY BY LTST ECMWF AS WELL) . HAVE INTRODUCED POP IN
LATE WEEK FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATIFORM RAINS FRI AND
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERCAST CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING SO ONLY CONCERNS FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG
WOULD BE SOUTHWARD NEAR KOBE-KVRB-KFPR WHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT
AS THICK. OTHERWISE BIGGEST MORNING CONCERN WOULD CENTER AROUND
LCL LOW STRATUS DVLPMNT. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING
WOULD BE ALONG AND NEAR VICINITY OF DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR AFT 14Z. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTHERN
SECTIONS NEAR KLEE-KSFB-KDAB.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS CURRENTLY WSTRLY JUST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHWARD LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST
BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NW-N
AND EVENTUALLY NE...AND FINALLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE NEAR 10 KTS NEAR SHORE AND 10-15 TO AROUND A SOLID 15
KTS SUSTAINED OFFSHORE. SEAS MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS.
TONIGHT...AN E COMPONENT OF WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE-SSE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTH GULF AND SOUTH
GULF COAST STATES. MODELS PRESENTLY DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15-20 KTS OFFSHORE AND
AROUND 10-15/15 KTS NEAR SHORE. AT THE VERY LEAST CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND
POTENTIALLY CLOSER IN. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
IN CASE A SCA IS NECESSARY (MAINLY FOR WINDS). SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO RESPOND...THOUGH COULD RISE TO 5 FT (OFFSHORE NORTH LEG) BY
DAYBREAK WED.
THROUGH MIDWEEK APPROACH OF STRONG GULF SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
ADVISORY BY WED AFTN AND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 68 84 62 / 20 20 50 70
MCO 78 64 82 62 / 20 10 50 70
MLB 79 70 86 65 / 10 10 40 70
VRB 80 68 86 68 / 10 10 40 70
LEE 76 65 82 61 / 20 20 60 70
SFB 78 65 84 61 / 20 20 50 70
ORL 77 64 83 62 / 20 20 50 70
FPR 80 68 86 67 / 10 10 40 70
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
