FXUS63 KGLD 271923
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

.UPDATE...
1220 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE
AT 70 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. THINK AT LEAST A FEW RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN AND HAVE UPPED TEMPS AND ADDED RECORD WORDING TO THE
FORECAST. 

CURRENT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY...

HILL CITY          72 DEGREES (1998)
YUMA               72 DEGREES (1960)
TRIBUNE            73 DEGREES (1933)
MCCOOK             73 DEGREES (1960)
GOODLAND           75 DEGREES (1949)

JRM
&&

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY 
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE 
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...SO WITHOUT DOWNSLOPE 
WARMING DON'T THINK ANY RECORDS WILL BE REACHED. USING 925MB BIASES 
FROM YESTERDAY EXPECTING MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS 
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY 
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. FROPA WILL BE UNEVENTFUL 
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO RATHER WEAK QG FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH 
AND EVEN WEAKER UPSLOPE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. MODEL QPF LOOKS 
OVERDONE...AND EVEN THEN IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
CWA. THE FORCING IS BASICALLY DONE BY 18Z SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE 
BUILDS BEHIND THE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. PLAN ON LOWERING POPS AND 
RESTRICTING THEM TO SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH 
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE NOSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON 
MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AT SURFACE WILL 
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AND RAISED MAXES. NEXT SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT 
EASING INTO THE CWA. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE 
MAXES...AND CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE IT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST 
KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL WARMING COULD RESULT IN MUCH 
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ADVERTISED...BUT AGAIN TIMING FRONT AT THIS 
TIME RANGE NOT EASY SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD FOR NOW.

NO CHANGES MADE AFTER TUESDAY.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
1029 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH COLD
FRONT ARRVING AROUND 10Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$