FXUS65 KBOU 260926
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
225 AM MST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...A VERY MILD THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE 
FORECAST AREA UNDER SUNNY SKIES.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT 
BASIN...AND NOTHING BUT DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE 
REGION TODAY.  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST 
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD BRING A NICE WARMUP 
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS.  THERE IS A BIT 
MORE WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED... 
SO A FEW PLACES NEAR THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE THE UPPER 60S.  CLEAR 
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL 
COOLING...BUT WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD STILL KEEP LOW 
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS AND A THERMAL RIDGE AT THE SFC CENTERED OVER ERN CO. ON 
SATURDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST...SPLITTING AS IT MAKES IT WAY INLAND.  BY 00Z SUNDAY THE 
NAM12 HAS THE NRN BRANCH MOVING INTO ERN MT/WY WITH THE SRN BRANCH 
WINDING UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CO.  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS IN FM THE NORTH.  
THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWER LEVEL FAIRLY DRY THROUGH 
THE DAY WITH NELY UPSLOPE DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.  THE AMS DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO SATURATE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WL KEEP ANY MENTION OF 
PCPN SATURDAY CONFINED TO THE MTNS. SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROF AXIS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN BRANCH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NERN CO.  
THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT EVIDENT SFC AND ALOFT SATURDAY 
NIGHT...BUT THEN IT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH SUNDAY 
WITH QG DESCENT ON SUNDAY.  ANY SNOWFALL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS 
LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL WEST AND 
SOUTH OF DENVER.  THE NAM12 ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK INVERTED TROF ALONG 
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW 
IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  
WILL CARRY THE CHC OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING ...12-18Z THEN DRY 
THINGS OUT.  NO CHANGES FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IS 
PROGGED TO GET PUSHED INTO OLD MEXICO WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT.  THE GFS DOES HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM 
DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND COULD AFFECT NRN CO TUESDAY NIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY.  ONE MORE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT WL KEEP THE 
GRIDS BEYOND TUESDAY AS IS.  

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS 
OVERHEAD.  LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 6-12 KNOTS WILL 
PREVAIL...WITH A SLIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST BIAS FROM AROUND 19Z-00Z.  

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

$$

BARJENBRUCH/COOPER