FXUS64 KTSA 251155
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING RAPIDLY WITH THE ENDING OF THE SNOW.
THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES HAVE CLEARED AND THE ARKANSAS 
TAF SITES WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
EPIC CHRISTMAS EVE WINTER STORM THAT DUMPED 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN 
NE OK (WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) AND PRODUCED 40-50 MPH 
GUSTS IS WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. 

DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS LIFTING QUICKLY N INTO SRN MO...WITH 
986MB SFC LOW SHIFTING N THROUGH NRN MO. HEAVIEST SNOWS HAVE LIFTED 
WELL N OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED...SO 
PLAN ON DROPPING MOST WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST 
ISSUANCE. WILL EXTEND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF FAR ERN
OK AND NW AR...WHERE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE IT
ENDS LATER THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO MENTION AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS
MORNING FROM NE OK INTO NW AR...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE 
REGION...HAVE UNDERCUT THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. 
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 30F FROM NE OK INTO NW AR...DESPITE SOME 
SUN.

SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS...AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS. 
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER NW AR IN 
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BUT CHILLY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER ON TAP FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE BULK 
OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN TX...ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF 
THAN THE GFS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX 
TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF 
SUGGESTS A STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ063-
     OKZ069.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08