FXUS64 KOUN 272315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS... WINDS DECREASING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 8-10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW AT KGAG/KWWR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 21Z. CLOUDS LIMITED TO SCT/BKN CIRRUS AS AIR
REMAINS VERY DRY BELOW 500 MB. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REAPPEAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THOUGH A WEDGE OF
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS QUITE LIKELY IN NORTHWEST OK...THIS DRY
AIR WILL BE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND SPEEDS THERE SHOULD BE
MUCH LIGHTER THAN THOSE MEASURED TODAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
MODERATELY LOW HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA.

REGARDING THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP EVENT FOR
SUNDAY...IT SEEMS THAT THE MAJOR LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION RELATIVE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
SOUTHEAST OF A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY DIVIDE THE CWA IN HALF BY AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH. THE LOCATION OF THE JET FORECAST BY THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE EXPECTED MOISTURE FIELD FAVOR LOW POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ARE DERIVED FROM SREF GUIDANCE...WITH MAV
GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY TOO COLD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TOO WARM BEHIND
IT.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
ECMWF CAME IN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT WAS BASED ON THE ECMWF. IT STILL LOOKS AS
IF WE ARE IN FOR A PERIOD OF NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  68  46  52 /   0   0  10  40 
HOBART OK         42  69  43  51 /   0   0  10  40 
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  75  48  58 /   0   0  10  50 
GAGE OK           33  65  36  45 /   0   0  10  30 
PONCA CITY OK     43  65  43  48 /   0   0  10  30 
DURANT OK         46  69  54  62 /   0   0  10  60 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

&&

$$

25/24/24