FXUS61 KCAR 241952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
252 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN CREST
OVER THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
CANADA SUNDAY AS IT PULLS A WARM FRONT UP INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF BRISK WINDS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE ON THE PERSISTENT SC DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND THE WEAK BANDS OF SW- OFF THE ST
LAWRENCE THAT CONT TO AFFECT MAINLY NRN AND ERN AREAS OF THE FA...
CURRENT SAT PIX SHOW ALL BUT FAR SWRN AREAS OF OUR CWA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A 1000-2000 DECK OF SC. THIS SEEMS TO BE LARGELY THE
RESULT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE BEING PICKED UP OFF OF THE ST LAWRENCE
TO OUR N AND PULLED SWRD ACROSS THE AREA PER THE BANDED N-S
STRIATIONS EVIDENT ON SAT. THIS NOT TOO UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN NON-ARCTIC AIR MASSES W/ HGH PRESSURE TO THE W OR NW OF
THE AREA AND N TO NW LOW-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS IS ALSO
USUALLY THE CASE...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOW-
LVL MOISTURE SO THE FCST WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON PERSISTENCE...
ALSO SEEING OCNL BANDS OF LGT SNOW/SW- ACROSS MAINLY ERN AND NERN
AREAS ATTM...

WILL KEEP CLDS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THRU TNGT W/
SOME DCRS IN CLDS FINALLY PSBLY ON FRI AS RDG BUILDS RGT OVR THE
AREA AND INCRSG SUBSIDENCE MAY BE ENUF TO FINALLY DRY OUT THE LOW-
LVLS. DOWNSLOPING LEADING TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA W OF BGR AND SAT TRENDS LAST FEW HRS SHOW THE WRN EDGE OF
THE CLD SHIELD THESE AREAS SHIFTING SLOWLY EWRD. WILL CONT THESE
TRENDS W/ SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING P/C ACROSS MUCH OF OUR SRN
AREAS LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE.  

OTHRWS...WILL ALSO KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS FAR NRN AND NERN
SECTIONS FOR TNGT AS CONTD N FLOW COULD LEAD TO VRY LGT SW- OR
FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME...

FRI LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THE RDG OF HGH PRES BUILDS RGT
ACROSS THE REGION. XPCT THE INCRSG SUBSIDENCE TO RESULT IN DCRSG
CLDS ACROSS THE N W/ NIL POPS...
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST. THE 500 MB RIDGE LINE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF STATE SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE MID WEST WILL BE APPROACHING BEHIND THIS RIDGE. AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT
OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND GFS FOR POPS...QPF...AND SKY COVER. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT WILL USE GMOS INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO
NAM TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE
OFFICE THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON 50/50 BLEND OF NAM AND GFS RUN ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURE GRIDS. HAVE USED GMOS FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FIND THE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A PRIMARY LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY...MULIPULE SECONDARY LOWS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDRY THAT RUNS THROUGH WESTERN MAINE. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
IN. THIS HIGH WILL GIVEWAY TO AN NEW LOW THAT WILL DEVELOPE OVER
CAPE COD AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MAINE. BY
00Z WEDNESDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN. BY 00Z THURSDAY
THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD. INTO WESTERN MAINE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD GFS...INTO VT
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ECMWF. LOADED GMOS...ADJUSTED SKY/POP
GRIDS TO CLEAN THEM UP. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AND KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING ACROSS
THE N TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT PSBL THIS EVE BUT WILL LIKELY RTRN
TO MVFR CONDS LATER TNGT EVEN IF THIS OCCURS... SHOULD FINALLY SEE
MORE WDSPRD VFR CONDS ACROSS THE N BY LATER FRI AM. FOR OUR SRN
TAF SITES...XPCT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTN W/ VFR CONDS
THEN PREVAILING THRU FRI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS CURRENTLY COMING DOWN NICELY BUT SEAS STILL IN THE
5.5 TO 6 FT RANGE... CURRENT WNAWAVE GUIDANCE LAGGING CURRENT
CONDS BUT ADJUSTMENT FOR THESE TRENDS STILL RESULTS IN SEAS
DROPPING BLO SCA BY LATER THIS EVE. WILL HANG ON TO THE CURRENT
SCA THRU 03Z THIS EVE...  THEREAFTER XPCT WNDS/SEAS BLO SCA THRU FRI...

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40. FOR WAVES USED WNA/4. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER 27/00Z. AT THIS
TIME WNA LOOKS REASONABLE SO NOT CHANGES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE