FXUS63 KGID 252317
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
517 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.AVIATION...KGRI 00Z TAF...UPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN IOWA IS
PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. VSBYS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1SM IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE
UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FINALLY START PUSHING TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP EASE THE WINDS FROM THE 35KT
PEAK GUST 50KT TO THE 20-25KT PEAK GUSTS 30-35KT ON SATURDAY. WILL
STILL BE A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW AROUND SATURDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP
VSBYS FROM 3 TO 5 MILES AND OCCASIONALLY AROUND 1SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO HAMMER THE REGION WITH SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS. KHSI HAD A
PEAK WIND TO 58 MPH AT 1946Z. MOST ALL OTHER NEBRASKA OBSERVATION
SITES GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH AND IN KANSAS THEY ARE GUSTING TO 30
TO 40 MPH. SINCE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS WIND-FILLED TRIP
AROUND IOWA...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BACK EDGE
OF SNOW WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED MOVING WEST AROUND KOLU. AND WE DID SEE
SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY AROUND 18Z...BUT NOW IT IS PICKING BACK
UP AGAIN AS NEXT WAVE COMES AROUND UPPER SYSTEM. FAIRLY GOOD
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AND ALONG AND
EAST OF US-281 NOW AND IS HEADING SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NEBRASKA COUNTIES UNTIL
26/12Z. WILL HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS IF
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THAT AREA. SMITH CENTER IS NOW 1/4SM IN
MOD SNOW AND PHILLIPSBURG IS COMING DOWN AS WELL. WILL EXTEND
BLIZZARD WARNING INTO NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND KEEP WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN SOUTHERN TIER. THESE WILL GO THROUGH 26/12Z.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WARM AIR
WORKING WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW...NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST SOME BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AS THE LOW
STARTS TO PULL BACK TO THE EAST...SO SHOULD THE WARM AIR. WILL
CONTINUE COLD TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MAKES SOME SLOW
PROGRESS EASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
AND WITH DRY SNOW FALLING TODAY...THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A PROBLEM. STILL EVEN EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FALL...
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE BLOWING
SNOW. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEBRASKA COUNTIES
FOR BLOWING SNOW TO RUN FROM 26/12Z TO 27/00Z. SHOULD NOT BE THAT
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING SATURDAY. TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 22 RANGE BUT WINDS WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL
VERY WARM AT ALL.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE BACK INTO
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD.
SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL AND THIS WITH THE WIND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM GOING THROUGH THE BOTTOM. READINGS IN THE 8 TO 12
DEGREE RANGE WILL BE COMMON. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN AREA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE FIRST SIGNS 
OF TRULY LESS WIND...BUT STILL NOT CALM. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR
AS THIS HUGE UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY AND GETS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. AS MENTIONED...LESS WIND...BUT STILL 
PROBABLY A SOLID 15 TO 20 MPH IN MOST AREAS. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL 
GIVE ANOTHER DAY TO DIG OUT MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR SEVERAL 
RUNS..MODELS HAVE BEEN BEEN TARGETING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE QUICKLY 
GLANCING THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE 
MOVES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A TOKEN 
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY...ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STRONGER 
WAVE. NEITHER INSTANCE WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE CWFA...AND 
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE 
WEEK...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE TROUGHY IN NATURE...AND 
UNSETTLED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SOLID PRECIPITATION RISK TO LATCH 
ON TO AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE 
OUR BEST SHOT AT A BIT OF MODERATION TO ALMOST NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
ITS LOOKING LIKE THE LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL BE COLDER...AND POSSIBLY 
PRETTY DARN COLD. 12Z RUN OF THE ECWMF IS PUSHING A 1050MB HIGH INTO 
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING THE START OF 2010 
WOULD BE BELOW ZERO AND THEN SOME. THAT COULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER 
STORY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR 
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ017>019.

&&

$$