FXUS63 KSGF 151746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE A TEMPERATURE ROLLER
COASTER RIDE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS IS STILL HOLDING ON
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS GRIP AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS EDGING A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CWA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...DRYING WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE THIS STRATUS DECK...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO DO SO. MORNING TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELPED SOMEWHAT BY THE
CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS AT THIS HOUR MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE MIDDLE 20S. WHERE CLEARING DOES OCCUR THIS MORNING...LOWS
WILL DIP WELL INTO THE TEENS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
REGIME. STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
BUT GIVEN CAA REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM MUCH INTO THE 30S. WITH AT LEAST AN AFTERNOON OF SUN ON
TAP...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE HIGH SLIDES
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...GETTING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA TO INITIATE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE LITTLE CONSOLATION GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
PLUMMET QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A DECENT WAA REGIME...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING
BACK TO NEAR AVG WED AND ABOVE AVG THURSDAY. 

FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION REESTABLISHING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DELIVERING MORE COLD AIR TO THE REGION. THE MED
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE IN MAINTAINING THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW AVG TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WARRANT LOW END CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUCH SYSTEMS
ARE NORMALLY MOISTURE CHALLENGED AND THIS ONE SHOULD BE NO
DIFFERENT. NEVERTHELESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$