FXUS64 KTSA 092112
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SET UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WENT SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT FIGURING CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE UPPER TEENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE TAKEN THE LOW POPS OUT FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO TREND MORE
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850MB TEMPS UP AROUND +10C AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS...ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NORTH TO SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS
IS THE TIMING OF THE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT...THUS WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS FOR DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE
CWA FOR NOW AS MODEL RUNS LOOK KEEP DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF ON TEMPS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. ECMWF STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH
A FEELING THAT THE GFS IS TOO WARM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 11 34 22 41 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 15 36 23 42 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 12 36 24 42 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 7 34 19 40 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 9 33 20 39 / 0 0 10 10
BYV 11 33 21 39 / 0 0 10 10
MKO 11 35 24 41 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 8 32 21 39 / 0 0 10 10
F10 11 35 24 42 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 17 39 27 44 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
