FXUS61 KBOX 291829
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
129 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY DRY BRISK
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING WIND DRIVEN RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AND EARLY THURSDAY
THEN BLUSTERY SEASONABLE FALL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SUNNY NICE DAY CONTINUES AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE GT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. ASSOCD "STRENGTHENING" COLD
FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
BULK OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SNE DURING MONDAY...MAY BEGIN NW FRINGE
OF THE FA AFTER 08Z MONDAY. IN RI AND SE MASS...MOST OF THE SHOWERS
MAY HOLD OFF TIL MON AFTN. DUE TO THE INCREASING FGEN...LIGHT TO MDT
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WDSPRD AS THE FRONT ENTERS SNE...ESP SE
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. WE DO SEE 12Z/29 RGEM AND GGEM AS MORE
CONSERVATIVE BUT ATTM .. SIDED WITH THE WETTER VERSIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS/NAM AND UKMET.
THEREFORE...09Z SREF POPS RAISED 10 PCT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS MONDAY
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. MILD PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS INTO THE
FORENOON AND MIDDAY HOURS BDL ORH BOS SEWD THEN COOLING DURING THE
AFTN.
MON NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING SE NEW ENGLAND EVENING PER 09Z/29 SREF POPS AND
MULTI 12Z/29 OP MODEL AGREEMENT AS STRENGTHENING CFP MOVES OFFSHORE AND
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP. UKMET WITH A NOTABLE INTENSIFYING 500 MB
VORT-HFC CROSSING THE NJ COAST AT NIGHT SUGGESTING AS PER PREV MODEL
CYCLES THERE MAY BE SOME LAGGING OF THE SHOWER DEPARTURE SE MASS AND
HAVE RAISED OUR GUIDANCE A BIT IN THAT AREA. NO SNOW FCST AT THE TAIL
END DUE TO MILD BL TEMPS.
OTRW A DECENT SHOT OF CAA LATE MON NIGHT AND WHILE WE ARE NOT YET
FCSTG 32F TUE MORNING DEC 1 IN BOS...IT MIGHT NUDGE FREEZING AT LOGAN PER
SEVERAL MODELS T1 TEMPS.
AS OF THIS FCST...THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS WAS BLENDED FOR TT/TD/WIND
21Z TDY THRU 12Z TUE. SKY WAS AN APPROX 12Z/29 RGEM GFS/NAM 30/40/30
BLEND. GUSTS DRIVEN SOLELY FROM THE 12Z/29 NAM MXG HTS AND GUSTS
ALG. WE NOTE THE GUSTS ARE CAPPED ARD 26 KTS PARTS OF SE MASS MON
AFTN.
WILL CK ALL OF THIS WITH NEW 18Z NAM QPF..2M T...15Z SREF POPS AND
12Z EC AROUND 230 PM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY...A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6 AND -8C...SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN FACT...PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY
CONSIDERING OUR RECENT WEATHER. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A DRY DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S ON
THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE A BIT MILDER THAN TUESDAY WITH LESS
WIND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS STILL IN THE DAY 4 TO 5 TIME FRAME MEANING THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN IF THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WHILE ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...AT THIS POINT WE ARE
EXPECTING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL...BOTH MODELS INDICATE WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW THIS FAR OUT INTO A
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. PATCHY CI CLEARS SNH BY 230 PM. W-SW G20 KT EARLY THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...VFR...BUT LOWERING CIGS AND LOW PROB MVFR CONDITIONS IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS EEN TO THE NW BAF AFTER 10Z.
MON...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
SW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE FMH-HYA-ACK. WE MAY SEE IFR CONDS
DEVELOPING VCNTY ORH MIDDAY MONDAY IN SHOWERS... AND THEN BECOMING
EVIDENT FM PVD TO FMH/HYA ARD 21Z MONDAY IF SHOWERS DEVELOP AND
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE ARE FCSTG.
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS KACK KFMH AND KHYA /POSSIBLY PVD?/ DURING
THE EVENING BECOMING VFR WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR. NW WINDS
G15-25 KTS BOS PVD ORH HYA ACK AND FMH IN CAA.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA SEAS PERSIST OUTER WATERS THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND SCA WINDS MAY
DEVELOP LATE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. BUILDING SEAS SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. SCA SEAS CONTINUE SE OUTER WATERS.
MONDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF SCA WINDS WITH G25-30 KT AS SW LLJ
INCREASES AND MILD TEMPS OVER THE WATER SUPPORTS SOME MIXING. SEAS
BUILD TO 7-10 FT OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...SCA ANTICIPATED MANY WATERS IN A PRD OF CAA.
HEADLINES WILL PROB BE EXPANDED IN THE 4PM ISSUANCE DEPENDENT ON THE
18Z NAM WINDS...15Z SREF SCA PROBS AND 12Z EC...ALL NEED TO BE
SUPPORTING WHICH MEANS NO WANING FROM THE PREV CYCLE OUTPUT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SCA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS RECORDED
ITS FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. IT IS LIKELY WE EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT
RECORD.
CURRENTLY...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 33-34 DEGREES ON THE MORNING
OF 12/1 AND 12/2. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32 IN BOSTON IS AROUND
NOVEMBER 4TH. HAYDEN POINTED OUT THAT DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LATEST
OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON... WE DID ESTABLISH THE 3RD
EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS FALL ON OCTOBER 18TH.
NOVEMBER WILL BE TOP 10 WARMEST... STATUS THRU 11/28
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE TOP
10 WARMEST IS ASSURED FOR MOST OR ALL OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR LOCATIONS.
BELOW IS THE CURRENT AVG FOR THE MONTH FROM OUR PRELIMINARY CF6...AS
WELL AS THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND THEN THE RANKING CLOSING WITH
THE 2006 REFERENCE.
BOS 48.9 PLUS 3.7 RANKED A STRONG NUMBER 6 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.4 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.0 PLUS 4.9 RANKED A SOLID NUMBER 3. 2006 WAS 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.8 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER 4. 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DRAG 127P
NEAR TERM...KJC/DRAG/RLG 127P
SHORT TERM...KJC/DRAG 127P
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG/RLG 127P
MARINE...KJC/DRAG/RLG 127P
CLIMATE...127P
