FXUS63 KPAH 032305
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
505 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES...THEN POPS AND
PRECIP TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT
STORM SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

KEPT POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
RAIN AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...SO THIS FAR
OUT WITH TIMING...COVERAGE...ETC UNCERTAINTY ISSUES...JUST LEFT
WX AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

AFTER A SHORT RESPITE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. PREVIOUS GFS (06Z) AND ECMWF (00Z) MODEL RUNS WERE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY DEVELOPED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING H5 SHORT WAVE...THEN
LIFTED IT NORTHEAST TAKING IT ACROSS/NEAR OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD WARRANT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX EVERYWHERE ON
WEDNESDAY.

LATEST GFS (12Z) RUN SIMILAR TO THE 06Z SOLUTION...BUT THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TAKEN QUITE A DIFFERENT PATH. IT NOW TAKES THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE IF THIS TRACK PANS OUT...IT WOULD KEEP OUR ENTIRE
REGION IN THE WARM AIR (AOA 0C/32F) THUS PRODUCING ALL PRECIP LIQUID.
WITH THIS BEING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS...WILL
KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX GOING AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF STRATO-CU WAS ALONG THE WABASH AND OHIO RIVERS MOVING
EAST. WILL TRANSITION THE LOW END VFR SCT-BKN CIGS EASTWARD THROUGH 
MID EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT 
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
CU FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY KOWB AND KEVV...AS SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
IS SEEN IN THE MODELS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST 
INDIANA. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$