FXUS64 KOHX 111151
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
551 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
BUT AFFECTS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL AFTER TAF
PERIOD. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING VERY COLD DRY DOME OF SFC/LL HIGH PRES OVER
THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT H7-H5. POLAR JET REMAINS SPLIT
WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. 

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL TODAY WHILE LL HIGH PRES OVER
THE REGION SLIDES EAST...WITH CENTER SETTING UP NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST ON SATURDAY. DURING THE PROCESS...SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH...DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
BUT SHOULD MOISTURE RETURN EARLY...IT MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN EXTREME SOUTH TO START. DURING THE AFTERNOON...RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...REMAINING THAT WAY WELL INTO
SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT AHEAD OF WEAK UL TROUGH.

BRIEF DRY PERIOD SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS 
RAPIDLY MONDAY AHEAD OF FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SWINGS
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT HAS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT BUT BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED LATE MONDAY...WITH
DRYING RETURNING LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES. SFC/LL HIGH 
MOVING IN BEHIND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$