FXUS61 KBGM 300612
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER TEMPERATURES...
AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER MILDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM...
LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN PTN OF FA IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FRONT ABOUT TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECIP
MAKING GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NY AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PRECIP POSSIBLY REACHING FAR SE FA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE HOURLY TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT OVER SE FA.
UPDATED AS OF 244 PM...LOW CLOUDS THAT IMPACTED MOST OF NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH MIDDAY HAVE FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...BEING REPLACED NOW BY A SHIELD OF CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A 1004 MB LOW NOW EAST OF DETROIT WILL TRACK DUE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN VERMONT BY
12Z MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AS THIS HAPPENS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING...AND THICKEN UP AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO I-81 BETWEEN 04Z - 06Z. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FOR KAVP INDICATE RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK
OVER NE PA AND WILL LIMIT ANY MENTION OF RAIN HERE UNTIL THEN.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HILLTOPS WHERE IT MAY
BECOME BREEZY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS
10 TO 15 KTS ABOVE 1300 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN AND WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL SLOWLY
IF NOT HOLD STEADY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FALLING RIGHT NEAR
DAYBREAK WITH THE FROPA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
NY/PA ON MONDAY...SO WE'LL RETAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-81 CORRIDOR ON
EAST AND SOUTH. DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SINKING
MOTION WILL BRING AN END TO ANY STEADIER RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...DECENT LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE UNDER THE CAPPING INVERSION...WILL PROBABLY INDUCE
SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS. AFTER ABOUT 3 OR 4 PM...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN.
MONDAY NIGHT...ROUGHLY A 310 VECTOR IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C. LIMITING FACTORS THOUGH...WILL BE A
LOWERING INVERSION LATE AT NIGHT...AND POOR SNOW GROWTH
PARAMETERS. OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS LOOK SMALL (PERHAPS AROUND AN
INCH AT THE TOP END)...AND MAINLY ACROSS ONONDAGA/SOUTHERN
MADISON/CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK...AS A SECONDARY
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. ANTICIPATED 270-280 WINDS
FAVORS MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTHERN
ONEIDA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...THOUGH...THE MIXED LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY
DEEP...AND DENDRITE PRODUCTION WOULD SEEM LIMITED FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT. ANOTHER RELATIVELY MINOR LES EVENT IS FORESEEN.
FARTHER SOUTH...THINGS LOOK MAINLY DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING GULF LOW FROM THE SOUTH...SHOULD NOT IMPINGE ON THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE GULF
STATES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE WAA
IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN BOTH WED NGT
AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG WARMING WED NIGHT
EVEN ACROSS NRN CWA. WENT LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT WITH CHC JUST FAR
NRN CWA, THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS THURSDAY. AS SYSTEM PULLS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG CAA WILL CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS. FOR NOW KEPT SNOW SHOWERS ONLY
IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT THIS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT
GETS CLOSER. REMAINING PERIOD FOR EXTENDED FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH W/NW FLOW. CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN CWA IN FAVORABLE LAKE FLOW. LATE IN THE
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, SFC HIGH PRES IN THE TN VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST MODERATING FLOW THAT MAY DIMINISH ANY REMAINING
LAKE ACTIVITY.
TEMPS WED NGT/THURSDAY WILL BE MILD FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED THIS FALL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
A FEW HOURS AFTER. IMPROVEMENT TO BKN-OVC 4K-10K FOOT VFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW-NW FROM 14Z-16Z ACROSS CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS AND 17Z-18Z AT KAVP. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NITE...IMPROVING TO VFR CIGS. CHC MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH -SHSN.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN SE LAKE ONTARIO.
WED...VFR.
THUR....MVFR IN RAIN.
FRI...VFR. OCNL MVFR NEAR KSYR-KRME POSSIBLE DUE TO -SHSN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...SUNDAY MORNING
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW WAS BROKEN WITH THE CLIMATE REPORT ISSUED THIS
MORNING FOR THE 28TH. SEE THE RECORD REPORT ON THE INTERNET UNDER
LOCAL CLIMATE. HTTP:/WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BGM
THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY
CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED
FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT
JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 278 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 29TH SO FAR
2) 1946 276 DAYSFEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
SYRACUSE MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF AN INCH IS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB
CLIMATE...
