FXUS62 KMHX 031010
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
510 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEFTOVER PCPN WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE AS THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCED HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHEARS
OUT TO THE NE. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. SHUD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FLAT SC BUT LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN CHCS. TEMPS ALREADY STARTING OUT VERY
MILD THIS MORNING AND SHUD SEE A BRIEF DROP AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING BUT WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY BNDRY THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UNDER A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA TNGT AND FRIDAY. BOTH LOWS TNGT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. SKIES CLEAR BEHIND WEAK BNDRY TNGT THEN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF YET ANTHR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY AND EAST OF HATTERAS ON
SATURDAY. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PCPN CHCS SO A
COLD RAIN SEEMS LIKELY. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN MIXED PTYPE AS PCPN
WINDS DOWN SAT NIGHT AS CRITICAL 1000-850 MB LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
DROPS BLO 1300M OVRNGT ACRS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. LATER
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PSBL WINTRY MIX BUT APPEARS
NOW THAT BOTH THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN AND WARM GROUND SHUD
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS
UNCERTAIN BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP OVER
THE SE STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235AM THU...
PRECIP IS SHIFTING E OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND VFR HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E AS A RESULT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
LINGER NEAR THE COAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THO. MAIN ISSUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE SW WINDS GUSTING IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING MORE
WLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRES BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SOME CONCERN FOR FOG
TONIGHT GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND DIMINISHING WINDS/MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER...AND WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS LATE IN THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR EXPECTED FRI WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE W/NW. STILL
EXPECTING CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND LOWER FLIGHT RULES TO INCREASE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS LOW PRES FROM THE GULF TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING INTO SUN AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN
CONUS. VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO MON THO HARD TO RULE OUT MVFR SCU
LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 315AM THU...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS AREA WATERS
BUT CONTINUE TO GUST IN THAT RANGE NEAR OUR CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST...AND PRECIP HAS LINGERED LONGER
WHICH IS LIKELY HELPING LOW LVL MIXING. WILL THUS HANG ONTO THE GALE
WARNINGS A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS BUT DOWNGRADED
AMZ-130/158 TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PER LATEST OBS. SW BECOMING W
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY WITH ALL WATERS
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 20KT BY 04/00Z...AS DEEP LOW PRES LIFTS E/NE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND HIGH PRES BEGINS NOSING IN FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO COME DOWN AS THIS OCCURS WITH A SUBSIDING WIND
WAVE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING SEAS TO LINGER IN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS AND
END IN THE CENTRAL WATERS LAST BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS S/SE
SWELL SHOULD BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BOATING CONDITIONS OF THE FORECAST WITH
HIGH PRES TO OUR NW LEAVING 5-15KT N/NE WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THEREAFTER AS THE
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRES FROM THE GULF PUSHES NE OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN
THE NWP GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO SHOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NLY WINDS/SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN. THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUN BEFORE IMPROVING SLOWLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR S/SE EXPOSED BEACHES
GIVEN UPCOMING ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TO OCCUR JUST
BEFORE 8AM AND SOME ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM ONSHORE WIND AND
HIGH SURF. ALSO WILL CONTINUE SOUND SIDE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OBX
AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING SW AND OREGON INLET GAUGE ALREADY RUNNING NEAR
1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EVERYWHERE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD WITH 8FT BREAKERS LIKELY
AT ESPECIALLY SOUTH EXPOSED BEACHES THIS MORNING. THIS ALSO COMES
DOWN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
104.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-
098-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW
