FXUS61 KCTP 031025
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY...DIRECTING A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA BEHIND BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INTENSE CONVECTIVE LINE ASSCD WITH SHORT WAVE TROF/SFC TROF JUST ABOUT
EAST OF CWA. VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANIED THE LINE WITH
SEVERAL SITES EXCEEDING 50KT. EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SFC WINDS BACKING TO SW AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT.COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OHIO WILL MOVE THRU CWA LATER THIS
MORNING AND BRING INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WINDS BEHIND FRONT PROGGED TO BE MORE WRLY THAN STRONG NWLY. THIS
WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL... BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS ACROSS
LAURELS AND NW MTNS INTO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS
POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE DIMINISHING TO NEAR NIL IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EVOLVING LW TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WILL TRANSITION INTO A MULTI-STREAM PATTERN...AS
THE UPPER VORTEX JUST NORTH OF MN SHEARS AND A NEW H5 LOW FORMS
NEAR HUDSON BAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SCENT CANADA.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVR
THE ERN GOMEX OR GULF STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LWR MS VLY
SAT. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PROGRESSION AND SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION
OF THIS MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE REASONABLY WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS THE GUID REFLECTS A LARGE SPREAD WITH
REGARDS TO POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW OFF THE
ECOAST BY SAT NGT. WILL CONT WITH LOW POPS MAINLY OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWA AS MDLS SUGGEST SOME SNOW OR RAIN
IS POSSIBLE THE NW SIDE OF THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER INTO SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS LOW WITH A SYS FCST TO CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POOR FLYING CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF/WITH
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY SLOT CROSSING
CENTRAL PA ATTM WITH ONLY ISLD SHOWERS REMAINING IN WAKE OF MAIN
PCPN SHIELD. SO CIGS AND ESP VSBYS WILL IMPROVE FOR A TIME EARLY
THIS AM...BUT PROB NOT OUT OF CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART. RAIN
SHWRS/ISLD TSRA MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH COLD FRONT BETWEEN 07
AND 12Z BRINGING CIGS/VSBYS BACK DOWN. WILL CONTINUE CB APPENDAGE TO
ALL BUT THE BFD TERMINAL.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA BTWN 08Z-12Z...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS LIKELY BTWN 30-40KTS. FREQUENT
GUSTS FROM THE W ARND 30KTS SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THRU THURS
AFTN. LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCT -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS
WEST AND CENTRAL PA...WHILE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR W. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT...MVFR POSS SE. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR LIKELY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER
