FXUS65 KPUB 091211
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
511 AM MST WED DEC 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN ACROSS COLORADO...WITH BELOW
ZERO TEMPS COVERING ALMOST ALL THE STATE AS OF 10Z. WINDS STILL
HOWLING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS CONTINUING AT MONARCH
PASS AWOS EARLY THIS MORNING. DOESN'T APPEAR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
IS FALLING...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS SUSPECT WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER BOTH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.
TODAY...WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN PLACE ALL AREAS THROUGH
15Z...AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
DIVIDE THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE LOWER ELEVATION WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WON'T TAKE MUCH OF A
BREEZE TO NUDGE WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN MINUS 18F THRESHOLD. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WINDS DON'T REALLY
DIMINISH UNTIL UPPER JET PULLS AWAY AFTER 21Z...AND WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF TEMP RECOVERY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ALL DAY.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
UNTIL 18Z FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS BLOWING SNOW MAY
CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVER THE PASSES THIS MORNING. COLD START AND
WEAK MIXING OVER THE VALLEYS/PLAINS SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS COLD
TODAY...CURRENT T/MAX T GRIDS LOOKS OK.
TONIGHT...WEAK ENERGY EMBEDDED IN UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT -SHSN GOING OVER THE DIVIDE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. VERY WEAK LEE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING AREAS WEST OF I-25 SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WHILE USUALLY COLD VALLEYS DECOUPLE AND DROP BELOW ZERO
ONCE AGAIN. -PETERSEN
.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY-TUESDAY)
LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN AMOUNT OF WARMING AND INCREASING CHANCES
OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE CONTINENTAL DVD INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW
PROGGED OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS TO BE TRICKY ON
THURSDAY WITH SLOW WARMING ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRONG INVERSIONS REMAINING
INTACT AND HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH WARMEST
READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF I-25 WHERE LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP WITH LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MINOR WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT HELPS KICK LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY OWNING TO MORE MIXING AND ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH COOLER AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS.
MODELS A TAD SLOWER WITH NEXT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF DESERT SW ON AND
HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN THE
OFFING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. INCREASING PAC MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON SUNDAY WITH THE LATEST GFS TRYING TO PHASE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADING TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT ANY RATE...WITH A GOOD
TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASING UVV AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA
ATTM. DID WARM UP TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS
MODELS DO INDICATE GOOD PREFRONTAL MIXING AND WARMING. DID NOT
CHANGE MUCH WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT POPS AND
COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
SOLUTION REMAINS TRUE. -MW
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY IFR STRATUS NOTED AT KCOS AS OF 1030Z...WITH KCOS
WEB CAMS SHOWING SOME SHREDS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CITY. SUSPECT
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO TERRESTRIAL SOURCES PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH ICE
CRYSTALS TO FORM CLOUDS...AS AMBIENT AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HAVEN'T
AMENDED THE KCOS YET AS CLOUDS STILL LOOK VERY LOCALIZED...BUT WILL
MONITOR THROUGH THE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STILL SOME CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS TODAY...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 10K FEET MSL...MAINLY FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ059-
061>065-067-069>089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ058-
060-066-068.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060-
066-068.
&&
$$
10/23
