FXUS64 KSHV 092122
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COLD NIGHT IN STORE AS 1022 MB SETTLING IN FROM OK...WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SPORADIC PATCHES OF FAST
MOVG UPPER LVL CLOUDS...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT A LIGHT NW WIND WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN MID TO
UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS CLOSER TO 20 OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE NORTHERN
SECTIONS COULD FLIRT WITH POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SHOT OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS OCCURRENCE WOULD BE DEPENDED UPON EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND WITH NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...5 TO 6 PERIODS TOO FAR OUT
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN FCST. HOWEVER...AM BEGINNING TREND TO
LOWER TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE...AS SNOWPACK OVER PLAINS BEGIN TO SLOW
DOWN COLD AIRMASS MODIFICATIONS. EVEN BEFORE THE SNOWPACK RECENTLY
OCCURRED...MODELS RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH ON TEMPS.
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING EAST
LATER SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN...EXPECTED AROUND MONDAY./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
ONLY CLOUDS THAT CAN BE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE CIRRUS THAT WILL BE STREAMING OVERHEAD.
CLOUDS BASED ROUGHLY AROUND 5K FT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS...IF NOT A
LITTLE LESS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 24 48 31 47 37 / 0 0 10 20 30
MLU 28 47 28 47 35 / 0 0 10 20 30
DEQ 19 44 24 48 33 / 0 0 10 10 20
TXK 22 44 28 47 33 / 0 0 10 10 20
ELD 23 46 27 46 33 / 0 0 10 20 20
TYR 22 48 35 48 40 / 0 0 10 10 30
GGG 21 46 34 48 39 / 0 0 10 10 30
LFK 27 52 36 50 42 / 0 0 10 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
