FXUS61 KOKX 291727
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION...
PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. BASED ON THIS
MORNINGS LOCAL SOUNDING WITH FULL SUN...FORECAST MAX TEMPS APPEAR
ON TARGET...MAINLY 50-55. ENJOY YET ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED...WITH NAM A SLIGHT OUTLIER WITH 
HANDLING OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MONDAY 
AND TUESDAY...AND THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN 
SOUTHEAST CANADA RETROGRADES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN 
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND WILL RUN 
ABOVE NORMAL IN SW WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO APPROACH NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TONIGHT...AND SWEEP 
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED 
AS MOST IF NOT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS OUTPUT SOME QPF...ALBEIT LIGHT. 
COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES...BUT TEMPS STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER...BUT REMAIN MIXED. AS SUCH...LARGE 
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DISPARITY FROM NYC METRO (HEAT ISLAND) AND 
SURROUNDING SUBURBS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT ANY LAKE INDUCED PRECIP TO 
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA. 

TUESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH H8 TEMPS -6C. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDS SWEEP IN AS TROUGH KICKS OUT TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST IN 
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA...PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY. FEEL WEDNESDAY REMAINS DRY AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE 
SOUTH AND EAST. THEN...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. WILL 
CONTINUE WITH A TRACK JUST INLAND OR RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...JUST 
ABOUT OVER THE AREA. GFS FASTER WITH LOW MOVEMENT COMPARED TO 
EC/GGEM. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL 
LIQUID TO OCCUR WITH THIS EVENT. IF THIS LOW PASSES FURTHER 
EAST...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THIS 
SYSTEM.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO THE S AND LOW PRES TO THE NE WILL KEEP SW FLOW LOCKED
IN THRU TNGT. LOW PRES NEAR DETROIT WILL DRAW A CDFNT THRU 15-19Z
MON WITH INCREASING NW FLOW AFT FROPA.

CIGS/VSBY VFR TIL CDFNT APPROACHES. MVFR WITH SHRA 15-19Z MON.

WINDS A STEADY 8-12KT AROUND 220 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. STRONGEST
ALONG THE COASTS...WITH SOME DIMINISHMENT INLAND AFT DARK. WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON MRNG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN GUSTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH DIRECTION 300-330.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON NGT-TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR AT KSWF.
WED-THU...DEEP LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU. PERIODS OF +RA...LLWS...STRONG SFC WINDS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
STORM. 
FRI...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY COVERING MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ON OCEAN WATERS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS ON
EASTERN LI SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTN WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UP
AND THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME...JUST DIDN'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WOULD REACH AT THIS POINT.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE 
SOUTH. FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ON THE OCEAN AS A STRONG STORM 
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH CLOSE TO A 1/4
INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC/PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GC
HYDROLOGY...PW