FXUS61 KBGM 110920
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
420 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGION TODAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE TUG HILL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ONLY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE CONTS TO PUMMEL WRN NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS FAR HV NOT HAD TO WORRY ABOUT ERIE
BAND PENETRATING FAR ENUF INLAND TO AFFECT FINGER LKS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME LK SNOWS MAY MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY THIS
AFTN...ALTHO AMNTS SHUD RMN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH ONLY 2-4
INCHES EXPECTED.
ACRS THE NORTH SINGLE BAND OF SNOW ALONG WITH OCNL THUNDER IS ORGANIZED
FM SRN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND SMACK DAB THRU THE MIDDLE OF LEWIS AND
INTO NRN HERKIMER CNTY AS OF 06Z. THIS BAND APPEARS AS THO IT IS VRY
SLOWLY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH...ALTHO IT IS IN NO HURRY TO DO IT JUST
YET. BUFKIT SNDGS/LOCAL ENSEMBLE AND KBUF LES ENSEMBLES BRING THIS
BAND INTO NERN ONEIDA CNTY/TUG HILL REGION ARND 09Z. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH UPDATED LES WARNING TIME FM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN AND TWD EVNG. SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH RATES EXPECTED TO
INCRS AFT 18Z. OMEGA FIELDS PER 00Z NAM AT KRME INDICATE OMEGA
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 60 MBAR/SEC. BASED ON FCST SNDGS...HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WUD APPEAR TO FALL STARTING MID-LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING
UNTIL 06Z OR SO. FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR REPRESENTATION AND MODEL
GUIDANCE THE HIGHEST AMNTS WILL LKLY FALL ACRS EXTREME NERN ONEIDA
CNTY IN THE VICINITY OF BOONVILLE...HAWKINSVILLE AND WOODGATE. MAY
ALSO SEE HEFTY SNOW AMNTS TWD FLORENCE/CAMDEN AREAS. AT PRESENT IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS WL RMN WELL NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY TODAY...WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FM 12-15 INCHES ALONG THE
ONEIDA/LEWIS CNTY LINE TO UNDER 1 INCH IN ROME FROM 12Z-00Z TODAY.
AS FOR WINDS...WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS NEVER MATERIALIZED YESTERDAY AND WINDS WILL BE
MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ALTHO FULL MIXING CUD RESULT IN A GUST OR
TWO UP TO 40KTS...THINK THIS IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. HWVR WILL STILL
BE BLUSTERY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN LK BANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOW CONTS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECT
NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BTWN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE DRG THIS TIME. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BAND WILL DROP AS LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING FLOW ARND TO
ABOUT 290. THIS WUD PUSH LK SNOWS TWD I-90 IN ONEIDA CNTY WHICH IS
NOT COVERED WITH ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. AS THIS WILL BE
MARGINAL ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA...WILL NOT RAISE ANY FLAGS FOR
SRN ONEIDA AT THIS TIME.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OVRNGT UNDER EXTREME AMNTS OF LIFT AND
INSTABILITY...WITH LK INDUCED CAPE APPCHG 1000 J/KG TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1-2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 18 SATURDAY...
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 FEET NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE TIME THE
SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT AFTN. HIGHEST AMNTS WILL RANGE FM FLORENCE TO
POINT ROCK TO BOONVILLE.
INVERSION LOWERS BY SAT AFTN DCRSG CVRG AND INTENSITY OF PCPN. WINDS
WILL BACK ARND TO THE SW BY 20Z SHIFTING ANY LINGERING SNOW NORTH OF
CWA BY THIS TIME.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MV OUT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SAT NGT AND SPREAD
PCPN INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS WK SFC LOW RIDES UP
THE ERN SEABOARD AND POTENTIAL INVERTED TROF IMPACTS REGION. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH PCPN WHILE ECMWF/NAM LAGGING A TAD BHND. WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO AS NAM HAS BEEN A TAD TOO SLOW BRINGING PCPN
IN LATELY. HV KEPT CHC POPS IN FM 12-16Z THEN BUMPED TO LKLY RMNDR
OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM ATTM...BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE THIS A MIXED PRECIP
TYPE OF RAIN AND SNOW ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
TO BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN COLD ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY PRECIP ALL SNOW
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH THE UPPER LVL PATTERN
STALLS SOMEWHAT WITH A LARGE TROUGH HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN
US. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT
ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CENTRAL NY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. RIGHT
NOW IT ONLY LOOKS TO DROP TO MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY REAR
THEIR HEAD AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS AT KSYR-KRME
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. VFR WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS AND A CHC OF MVFR CIGS KITH-KELM-KBGM-KAVP.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
