FXUS64 KOHX 281018
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOW JUST TO OUR EAST, WE CAN EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND INCREASE TO 5-6 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF, AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS STILL TOO DRY FOR FOG OVERNIGHT, SO LOOK FOR VFR WX AT
BNA/CSV FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
H5 WAVE OVER EXTREME NW GULF HAS LITTLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT
SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO THE AREA SAT NGT. THE OTHER SYSTEM IS A COLD
FRONT FORMING IN THE PLAINS AND IT IS DUE INTO THE AREA SUN PM/SUN NGT.
RESULT IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SUN PM TO MON AM. LAYERED MOISTURE
THINS OUT QUICKLY ON MON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT THOUGHT TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON MON/MON NGT. THEN A STRONG H5 LOW...CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY SEWD THROUGH CA WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TUE NGT. THIS WILL GENERATE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
WHICH MOVES NEWD TUE NGT AND WED ACROSS THE GULF AND SERN STATES. 
THIS PUSHES RAIN BACK INTO THE MIDSTATE TUE NGT WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST TO THE NORTH...FROM MO TO OH. RAIN TAPERS OFF ON WED WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A MIX
OF RA/SN LATER WED NGT AND THU AM. NO SGFNT ACCUM IS EXPECTED ATTM.
SFC RIDGE OCCUPIES THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH LITTLE SGFNT WX
EXPECTED.

CPC PROGS 6-10 DY AND 8-14 DY SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE