FXUS64 KLIX 091027 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
SHORT TERM...
AT 06Z...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM ABOUT KJAN TO KPOE. BY 09Z...
SATELLITE INDICATED DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHEASTERN LA AND SOUTHERN
MS. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD DISIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS EVENING AS THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS..AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS P/CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE COUPLED WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL TAKE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LONG TERM...
A SERIES A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LA AND MS
COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE RAIN WILL
BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS
INLAND. AS A THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROGRESSES TOWARD THE P/CWA TUESDAY.
AVIATION...
..12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAPID
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE REGION. AT KMCB AND
KBTR...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME VFR BY 14Z. THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH 12Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND TURN GUSTY AFTER 18Z. AT KMSY
AND KGPT...THE CLEARING WILL A BIT SLOWER...AS THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 16-18Z. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 15Z. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TURN VFR...AND WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT. 32
COASTAL...
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEAS ARE RUNNING IN THE 6 TO 7 FOOT RANGE OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM. AS A RESULT...HAVE STEPPED UP
TO AN ADVISORY FOR TODAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PULL THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS TO EASILY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH THERMAL MIXING PROCESSES. THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS...HAVE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT THE LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE
EASTERLY...AND SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A DEEPENING GULF LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY
BE NEEDED DUE TO THIS SITUATION. THE GULF LOW WILL PULL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY...AS A LOW FORMS IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 33 53 33 / 10 10 10 20
BTR 63 36 57 38 / 10 10 10 20
MSY 69 44 58 44 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 71 39 58 39 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
