FXUS64 KSHV 111040
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1030 HIGH SITTING OVER TN WITH OUR SFC WINDS A BIT MORE FROM THE EAST.
TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE...THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN...AND LOWER
WITH SOLID LOW MID DECK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. T/TD SPREADS ARE
ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGRESS. SO...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP
TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE TO SHORT TERM WITH FREEZING
TEMPS IN THE GRIDS EXTREME NORTH OVERNIGHT. SO...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO...A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET MAY
OCCUR DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EVAP COOLING CAN GET CARRIED AWAY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH QPF
LOADED IN FROM HPC AND IS SCALED BACK JUST A BIT FOR PREVIOUS.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN OK MOVING
EAST AND FARTHER WEST OVER BAJA...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS
GEARING UP TO STEP UP THE MORE PRONOUNCED OVERRUNNING TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE STILL LOOKING AT MOST OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL
LATE TODAY...BUT WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE SEE NO
REASON TO BACK OFF ON SLIGHT OR CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY SOMETHING OF A BREAK IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES BUT THE MODELS SEEM TO LACKING CONCERNING THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE ANYWAY.
BEYNOND THIS EVENT...THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS LATE
SATURDAY...BUT ECMWF LIKES THE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH. WHILE GFS SWINGS US CLEAR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT ANY RATE SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY MUCH THE SAME WITH
WARMER TEMPS ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME SUN. RAIN IS RIGHT BACK
THOUGH FOR MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD THE NEXT STRONG COLD
FRONT. IN FACT...THE FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR LATE
MONDAY. MAV/MEX STILL LOOKING A BIT TOO WARM AND ONLY BLENDED TO
SOME EXTENT AS FAR AS HIGHS AND LOWS GO. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS AREA TERMAINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 11/2100 UTC. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD THEN AID IN
LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AS -RA DEVELOPS S OF THE AREA. THE RA SHOULD
MOVE N/E...GRADUALLY SPREADING FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS TO MOST
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 12/0000-0300 UTC. ONCE STARTED...PERIODS OF RA
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
/D. BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 47 39 49 43 68 / 20 60 40 20 10
MLU 47 36 47 43 66 / 20 60 60 20 10
DEQ 45 34 47 39 65 / 10 20 20 10 10
TXK 44 37 47 40 66 / 10 40 30 10 10
ELD 45 35 46 40 68 / 10 40 40 20 10
TYR 46 39 53 43 71 / 20 60 30 10 10
GGG 46 39 50 40 71 / 20 60 30 10 10
LFK 48 42 54 44 71 / 40 80 40 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/21
