FXUS64 KTSA 022319
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE KTUL/KRVS TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KFSM/KFYV/KXNA THROUGH ABOUT 03-05Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT 'HARD FREEZE' FOR ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT...AND...EVEN COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT.
FAST MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z.
PRECIP PRETTY MUCH OVER AND SHRINKING QUICKLY
ACCORDING TO KSRX. JUST SPRINKLES / FLURRIES
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM ROCKIES INTO TEXAS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PRECIP FROM THAT WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. EASTERN OK
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER
SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. SUB-MINUS 10 @ 850 MB
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. H500 TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS YIELDS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND EVEN
THOUGH MINOR WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
ATMOSPHERE IN FULL OSCILLATION MODE DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ECMWF / GFS BOTH INDICATE
MASSIVE ARCTIC AIR POOLING IN WESTERN CANADA.
H500 TEMPS WELL BELOW MINUS 40. GLOBAL MODEL
PUTS 1065 MB SURFACE HIGH IN NORTHERN BC ON
SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS AROUND 1055 MB. THAT COLD
AIR WILL REACH WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
NEXT WEEK...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY JUST GET
A GLANCING BLOW AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS.
NEXT LONG WAVE / ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY / TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 28 41 23 42 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 29 42 25 44 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 28 44 24 42 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 25 40 18 41 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 25 38 19 41 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 26 38 20 39 / 10 0 0 10
MKO 26 42 21 41 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 26 39 19 39 / 0 0 0 10
F10 27 42 22 42 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 30 44 29 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
