FXUS61 KBOX 061514
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1014 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TUESDAY...THEN A LARGE STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WIND. COLDER
THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
ROADS IN MANY AREAS WILL BE QUITE SLIPPERY THIS MORNING DUE TO SNOW
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BLUSTERY WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST ZONES MAY DEAL WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN
STRATOCU FROM LATE MORNING ON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AT TIMES UP THERE. BLENDED THE NAM AND MAVMOS TO DERIVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THE RECENT SNOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
MAXES COOLER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND COLD MINS. THE
GOOD RADIATORS WILL PROBABLY GET DOWN INTO THE TEENS IF SKIES STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
INCREASE THE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON...HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. WE HAVE JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SNE...HIGHEST NW.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS. SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV
GUIDANCE BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS.
MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SNE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST
OF NEW ENG. SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED
SREF POPS WHICH HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH SECOND
AREA NW HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS ALSO SUPPORTS SREF SOLUTION WITH LIGHT
QPF EASTERN NEW ENG. WE HAVE JUST CHC POPS WITH TIMING MAINLY MON
EVENING.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS.
TUE NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES WILL HOLD PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS LATE...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL WED.
OVERNIGHT RISING TEMPS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAIN.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF NEXT STORM FOR
WED WITH INTENSE PRIMARY LOW MOVING NE INTO THE GT LAKES AND
SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENG. ECMWF IS MOST INTENSE WITH 966 MB
LOW OVER LAKE HURON BY 00Z WED...WHILE GFS HAS 979 MB LOW IN SAME
GENERAL AREA. ALL MODELS ALSO SHOW SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO NEW
ENG.
A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP IS LIKELY WED ASSOCD WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST PTYPE WILL START AS SNOW AS DEEP COLD AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE. EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE EASTERLY FLOW MAY
WARM BL ENOUGH PRIOR TO PRECIP MOVING IN. HOWEVER...STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE LOW LEVELS ALL LOCATIONS AND
EXPECT EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN EVEN IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR DURING
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ICE POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVELS
ARE WARMING MORE QUICKLY THAN ALOFT SO THIS LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A
SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO. ADVSY LEVEL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DISTANT
INTERIOR.
WIND WILL BE OTHER CONCERN FOR WED WITH INTENSE LOW TRACKING TO THE
WEST. ECMWF HAS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON. GFS NOT AS
STRONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVSY WINDS.
EITHER WAY...STRONG WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SW BY WED EVENING AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES TOT HE
NORTH...BUT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS FAR OUT IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW FOR WED AND DURATION OF EASTERLY
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW WED
EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY WED EVENING...THEN PRECIP ENDING
OVERNIGHT.
THU THROUGH SAT...BROAD MID LEVEL TROF SETS UP FROM GT LAKES TO NEW
ENG WHICH WILL BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND PERSISTENT
BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS. COLDEST DAYS SHOULD BE FRI/SAT AS 850 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO -15C. A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS OF 3000 FEET LINGER ALONG THE OUTER CAPE BUT SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NW WIND CONTINUES TO GUST BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 20-25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST
EASTERN TERMINALS THE REST OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH DIMNISHING WIND.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A FEW RA/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND
ISOLD MVFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...IFR LIKELY IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. .
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALES WERE DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFTS THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
WILL PROBABLY TAKE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT TO EVENTUALLY COME DOWN
BELOW 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT BUT WINDS RAMPING UP TO
NEAR SCA ON SW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT. EASTERLY GALES PROBABLE WED
WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW WED NIGHT. HIGH PROB OF WESTERLY GALES THU.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
GLOUCESTER NWR TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR. RTS UNKNOWN.
WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. JOHNSTON/PROVIDENCE NWR TRANSMITTER
IS BACK ON THE AIR BUT ON LOW POWER...SOME SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THE SIGNAL. MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE DONE ON
MONDAY TO RETURN THIS STATION TO FULL POWER. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE
SEE OUR WEBSITE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
235>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER
EQUIPMENT...
