FXUS63 KOAX 260953
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN VORTICITY MAXIMA SSWD ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ONE
DROPPING INTO KS SW OF FBY AND ANOTHER DROPPING TOWARD SW IA. IN
ADDITION...TROWAL CONTINUED TO FEED WARMTH/MOISTURE FOR ANY
EMBEDDED WAVES TO WORK WITH AND THIS WL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF A JET SEGMENT THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO NRN NEBR. WITH ABOVE FACTORS RAISED POPS...MAINLY WRN
3/4 OF THE CWA. DECENT MID LVL DRYING FORECAST INTO IA COUNTIES
COULD SHUT OFF MUCH OF THE SNOW...SPCLY THIS AFTN. KEPT QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 0.10 BOTH TDA AND TNGT BASED ON DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CURRENT INTENSITY OF SNOW FALLING. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WINDS OVR NWRN ZONES EXPECTED POSSIBLY PAST 6 AM EXTENDED
BLIZZARD WARNING FM BOONE INTO KNOX COUNTY UNTIL NOON. WILL CANCEL
BLIZZARD WARNING 2 HOURS EARLY REST OF ZONES WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
EFFECT AND START WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INSTEAD. ALTHOUGH WINDS
AND SNOW WILL BE LIGHT OVER SECTIONS OF THE E THIS MORNING...MANY
ROADS REMAIN CLOSED AND WON/T WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY SINCE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTN. TROWAL HAS
SENT MILDER AIR TO SFC OVR SERN SD WITH FSD AT 34 DEG F AT 08Z...AND
TRAJECTORY IS POINTING SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR INTO NERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED HRLY/MAX TEMPS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN FCST TNGT...MAINLY N..AS SOME JET
FORCING/HIGHER MEAN RH PERSISTS.
LGT SNOW N/FLURRIES S STILL LOOK REASONABLE SUNDAY WITH ANY
ACTIVITY DECREASING IN THE AFTN/EVENING AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. MILDER AIR THAT HAS WORKED DOWN TO SFC/WRAPPED
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE PULLING E OF THE CWA LATER SUN INTO
MON ALLOWING SOME OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO OUR W TO FILTER
IN. THUS WL LEAN MORE TWD COLDER NAM GUIDANCE THOSE PDS.
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVR CWA MON NGT/TUE SHOULD ALLOW SFC HIGH TO
SETTLE OVER REGION AND PROVIDE SOME SUBZERO READINGS TUE MORNING. MEX
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED CATCHING ON...BUT STILL LOOKED A LTL TOO WARM
MOST AREAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SRN STREAM SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASING CLOUD/PCPN THREAT TO REGION LATE TUE INTO WED BUT ALSO
MODERATING TEMPS. ATTM LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE...BUT MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO FUTURE INCREASES
LATER IF TRENDS PERSIST.
ANOTHER TROUGH THEN DROPPING DOWN IN NRN STREAM WL PROVIDE A SHOT
OF COLDER AIR FM THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKED
IN THE BALLPARK.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-
052-053-067-068-090>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-
015-017-018-031>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-016-030.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-016-030.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/FOBERT
